Why to bet against the Mets when Jacob deGrom starts, plus other top picks for the weekend

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Hello, and Happy Friday, everyone. Can you believe Pete Blackburn is abandoning us to start a career as a professional marbles player? I know; it sounded weird to me too. Pete spent roughly 90 minutes trying to explain how it all works to me, but I still don't understand it, but he just seems so confident about it that I'm going to take his word for it.

So try not to shed any tears for Pete this weekend. He's going to be fine. I think. Maybe? Eh, who cares? He's gone now.

All that matters is I'm still here, and I've got picks to get you through the weekend. I've also got plenty of stories for you to read.

We'll miss you, Pete!

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Nationals at Mets, 7:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Nationals (+260): It is the return of Operation FadeGrom. For those of you who are uninitiated, Operation FadeGrom is simple. You just bet against the Mets every time Jacob deGrom starts for them. Not because deGrom stinks. He's awesome. It's the Mets who stink, particularly on days when he's starting.

You'll often find teams are overvalued when their ace is starting, but not every team is both overvalued and the Mets. You see, it turns out deGrom is too good. He pitches so well that he baffles the hitters on his team, too.

In three starts this season, deGrom has allowed one earned run and has 35 strikeouts in 20 innings, yet the Mets are only 1-2 in those starts. Going back to the 2018 season, when deGrom won his first Cy Young Award, the Mets are only 37-42 in his 79 starts. They've been heavily favored in just about every single one of them.

This means that if you've just blindly bet against the Mets any time he starts since then, you've won a lot of money. I have won a lot of money doing it. I want you to win money as well.

Key Trend: The Mets are only 37-42 in deGrom's 79 starts since 2018.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: Sportsline expert Kyle Akins is backing the Nats along with me tonight, and the Advanced Computer Model sees plenty of value on the total tonight as well.

💰The Picks

🏀 MLB

Diamondbacks at Braves, 7:20. p.m | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Diamondbacks (+150) -- There's too much value on Arizona for me to pass up on this price. Atlanta starter Huascar Ynoa is much better than his 6.18 ERA in 13 starts since the beginning of last season, but not so much to warrant Atlanta being this heavily favored tonight. Ynoa's been prone to allowing hard contact (he has a 12.7% barrel rate against him since 2020), and he's facing an Arizona offense that puts the ball in the air frequently and has a HR rate of 3.33% (11th in MLB) to start the year.

Of course, Atlanta's offense has plenty of pop of its own, but Ronald Acuña is still questionable for tonight, which hurts the unit overall. So while I expect Atlanta to win more often than not, I don't expect them to win more than 60% of the time, which is what their price suggests.

Key Trend: Atlanta is 1-5 in its last five home games.

🏀 NBA

Cavs at Hornets, 8 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass
The Pick: Cavs +1.5 (-110) -- It was announced earlier this week that LaMelo Ball is nearing a return for the Hornets, which is great news for Charlotte because they've really struggled without him and Gordon Hayward. After falling to the Bulls 108-91 last night, Charlotte has lost six of seven, and it hasn't been very competitive in any of its last four losses. The Hornets return home tonight, but they're on the second leg of a back-to-back, and this will be their seventh game in 10 days. The Cavs are more rested and beat the Hornets by 13 in Cleveland just over a week ago.

Key Trend: Charlotte is 4-6 ATS when favored at home this season.

⚽ Soccer

West Ham vs. Chelsea, Saturday, 12:30 p.m. | TV: NBC
The Pick: Under 2.5 (-125) -- Chelsea fans have to be facing a crisis of faith right now, don't they? No, I'm not talking about their revolt following the formation of the Super League; I'm talking about the club's results under Thomas Tuchel. On the one hand, it's hard to argue that Chelsea hasn't improved remarkably since dumping Frank Lampard for Tuchel. It's in the Champions League semis, and it's currently in position to qualify for next year's Champions League. These are great developments.

But the team is just so damn boring to watch. Tuchel has been in charge for 20 matches, and 10 of them have featured one goal or fewer (there have been four scoreless draws). Chelsea has dominated the ball and given opponents few opportunities to score, which is great for getting results, but it makes matches seem like four-hour affairs. It also makes it somewhat easy to figure out what to do this week. If we're going to be bored, let's at least make money in the process.

Key Trend: Thomas Tuchel's 20 matches in charge at Chelsea have featured an average of 1.65 goals per match.

Wolverhampton vs. Burnley, Sunday, 7 a.m. | TV: NBCSN
The Pick: Wolverhampton (+106) -- The early-season injury to Raúl Jiménez threw Wolves for a loop, as he was the cog that so much of the team's goal-scoring flowed through after losing Diogo Jota to Liverpool. So much so that, despite only playing nine full matches before going down, Jiménez is still tied for second on the team with four goals in the Premier League. The good news for Wolves is that while they won't finish the season where they hoped to because of it, they've found a groove of late. They've won two matches in a row, and even before the wins came, there were encouraging signs found in losses to Liverpool and West Ham before them.

Now Wolves face a Burnley squad that's limping to the finish line, hoping not to find itself dragged into a relegation battle. Burnley has lost three straight and has been horrible away from home all season. While it has an expected goal differential (xGD) of -0.22 per match at home, it's about four times worse on the road at nearly -0.88. Take the Wolves team rounding into form.

Key Trend: Wolverhampton have allowed only two goals in their last five matches against teams in the bottom half of the Premier League.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: SportsLine MMA analyst Kyle Marley is up more than $19,000 over the past 26 months with his UFC selections. He just revealed his predictions for Saturday's UFC card in Jacksonville.

💸 The DFS Rundown

Jayson Tatum Boston Celtics Joe Harris Brooklyn Nets — USATSI

Building Blocks

PG: Stephen Curry, Warriors
SG: Paul George, Clippers
SF: Jimmy Butler, Heat
PF: Jayson Tatum, Celtics
C: Nikola Jokic, Nuggets

Value Plays

PG: Raul Neto, Wizards
SG: Armoni Brooks, Rockets
SF: Joe Harris, Nets
PF: Xavier Tillman, Grizzlies
C: Kelly Olynyk, Rockets

Full lineup advice

Get winning NBA DFS picks from SportsLine pros Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs. McClure has won almost $2 million in daily Fantasy, while Gibbs crushed the NBA last season, cashing around 65 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 45 percent of the time in tournaments. See their DraftKings advice and FanDuel lineups here.