The Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets collide in Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals on Wednesday evening. The Heat are feeling good after rallying from an 8-point fourth-quarter deficit to secure a 111-108 win over Denver on Sunday. The Nuggets hope to calm the storm with Miami now having home-court advantage. The Nuggets are averaging 115.2 points per game during the 2023 NBA playoffs. Meanwhile, Miami is putting up 110.7 points per contest.

Tip-off from Kaseya Center in Miami is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Denver is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Heat vs. Nuggets odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 213. Before making any Nuggets vs. Heat picks, make sure you check out what proven SportsLine NBA expert Matthew Severance has to say.

Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over his past 163 NBA picks, he is 106-56-1 against the spread, returning $3,489 for $100 players. Anybody following him has seen huge returns.

Now, Severance has set his sights on Heat vs. Nuggets and just locked in his picks and NBA Finals predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Nuggets vs. Heat:

  • Heat vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -3.5
  • Heat vs. Nuggets over/under: 213 points
  • Heat vs. Nuggets money line: Denver -160, Miami +135
  • MIA: The Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games
  • DEN: The Nuggets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games
  • Heat vs. Nuggets picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets

Why the Heat can cover

Forward Caleb Martin hasn't had the start he had hoped for in the NBA Finals, but he is a very talented player. Martin plays with outstanding energy and effort. The Nevada product has solid ball handles with a nice jumper. Martin ranks fourth on the team in scoring (13) with 5.6 rebounds off the bench. On May 29 against the Celtics, he racked up 26 points and 10 rebounds.

Center Bam Adebayo plays so many different roles for this team. Adebayo has been a top-notch defender while being relentless in the lane. The 25-year-old can also set his teammates up due to his sound court vision. Adebayo leads the team in rebounds (9.4) along with 17.5 points and 3.9 assists per game. In Game 1 against the Nuggets, he had 26 points, 13 rebounds, and five assists. See which team to pick here

Why the Nuggets can cover

Guard Jamal Murray is such a dynamic and fearless scorer. Murray can be very dangerous with the ball in his hands due to his superb range and body control at the rim. The Kentucky product is averaging 27 points, 6.6 assists, and 1.6 steals per game in the playoffs. He has scored at least 30 points in three of his last six games. In the Game 1 win, Murray finished with 26 points and 10 assists.

Forward Michael Porter Jr. is a lengthy, floor-spacing threat in the frontcourt. Porter Jr. owns long arms that swarm defenders and allows him to shoot right over outstretched arms. The Missouri product also positions his body well to claim rebounds. He's averaging 14 points and 8.2 rebounds per game in the postseason. In Game 1, Porter Jr. amassed 14 points and 13 boards. See which team to pick here.

How to make Heat vs. Nuggets picks

Severance is leaning Under on the point total, and he has identified a critical X-factor he says makes one side of the spread a must-back. You can find out what it is, and see which side of the Heat vs. Nuggets spread to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Heat vs. Nuggets, and what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Nuggets spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the expert who has returned $3,489 to $100 players over his last 163 NBA picks, and find out.