The Miami Heat visit the Philadelphia 76ers for a playoff showdown on Sunday evening. Miami leads Philadelphia by 2-1 margin in the Eastern Conference semifinals, with the 76ers aiming to even the series in Game 4. Miami won the first two games at home before Philadelphia clawed back with a home victory on Friday.
Tipoff is at 8 p.m. ET in Philadelphia. Caesars Sportsbook lists Philadelphia as the two point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 208 in the latest Heat vs. 76ers odds. Before making any 76ers vs. Heat picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the third full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Sixers vs. Heat, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Heat vs. Sixers:
- Heat vs. 76ers spread: 76ers -2
- Heat vs. 76ers over-under: 208 points
- Heat vs. 76ers money line: 76ers -135, Heat +115
- MIA: The Heat are 5-3 against the spread in playoff games
- PHI: The 76ers are 5-4 against the spread in playoff games
Why the Heat can cover
Miami's defense is elite by any description. The Heat ranked in the top five of the NBA in defensive rating during the regular season and, to this point, Miami is No. 2 in the NBA playoffs in points allowed per possession. On top of that, the Heat are very strong on offense. The Heat are effectively creating second-chance opportunities with a 30.8 percent offensive rebound rate in the playoffs, and Miami has a legitimate No. 1 option in Jimmy Butler.
After an already impressive regular season, Butler has upped his production, averaging 27.4 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 5.4 assists per game while shooting 51.5 percent from the floor in the playoffs. Miami also has impressive supporting options in Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, and the Heat led the NBA in 3-point accuracy (37.9 percent) during the regular season.
Why the 76ers can cover
Philadelphia's defense responded in a big way in Game 3, holding Miami in check. The Heat scored less than 0.9 points per possession in what became a 20-point win for the 76ers, and Philadelphia has tangible defensive strengths. Doc Rivers' team is holding opponents to only 44.2 percent shooting in the postseason, and the 76ers are allowing only 30.5 percent shooting from 3-point range. Philadelphia is limiting opponents to 20.4 assists per game, a stout figure, and the 76ers were in the league's top tier in 3-point defense and assist prevention in the regular season.
On the other end, the 76ers are impressively efficient, scoring nearly 1.15 points per possession in the playoffs. Philadelphia boasts an elite 60.6 percent true shooting mark, including nearly 38 percent from 3-point range, and Tyrese Maxey is lighting it up in the playoffs, scoring 22.4 points per game and shooting 51.4 percent from the floor. Dating back to the regular season, Philadelphia ranked in the top four of the NBA in free throw accuracy, free throw creation, turnover avoidance and live-ball turnover avoidance, providing a strong offensive baseline.
How to make Heat vs. 76ers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 215 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model's Heat vs. 76ers picks at SportsLine.
So who wins 76ers vs. Heat? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
