The Denver Nuggets beat the Golden State Warriors on Dec. 23 and look to do it again in a Monday showdown tipping off at 10:30 p.m. ET. The Warriors are 10.5-point home favorites, down from an open of 12.5. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 226, down from 228.
You need to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking before locking in your own selections. It's an impressive 53-29 (65 percent) on its top-rated NBA point-spread picks, returning $2,110 to $100 players.
Now, the model simulated Nuggets-Warriors 10,000 times and locked in against-the-spread, over-under and money-line picks.
One we can give away: The computer is projecting a shootout between two top-10 offenses, with the over hitting in 59 percent of simulations. It also has a very strong pick for one side of the spread, saying you can bank on it almost 70 percent of the time.
The model knows Golden State is 32-8, the best record in the NBA, and has won four straight. Not coincidentally, Stephen Curry returned from an ankle injury four games ago.
In those four games, the Warriors are averaging 127.8 points, well above their NBA-leading 115.8 season average. Curry is averaging 36 points during that span, scoring 45 in a 121-105 rout of the Clippers on Saturday.
Golden State has lost just twice since Nov. 27. But one of those defeats came at the hands of Denver.
The Nuggets snapped the Warriors' 11-game win streak with a 96-81 victory on Dec. 23, holding the champions to just 3-of-27 shooting from downtown. Five Nuggets players scored in double figures, led by 19 from Gary Harris.
Few teams can claim the offensive balance of the Nuggets, who have six players averaging 10-plus points and five averaging at least 14.8.
Do Harris (16.5 ppg), Jamal Murray (16.0), Nikola Jokic (15.7, 10.1 rpg) and the Nuggets have the Warriors figured out, or can Curry, Kevin Durant (25.9 ppg) and Klay Thompson (20.7) exact revenge for an earlier defeat and cover? Visit SportsLine now to see what side of the Nuggets-Warriors spread you can bank on almost 70 percent of the time, all from the model that is a blistering 53-29 on NBA picks.
