Three second-round series are already underway, but the fourth and final conference semifinal tilt begins on Tuesday evening in San Francisco. The Golden State Warriors host the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 1 of a best-of-seven tilt at Chase Center. The Warriors won 44 games this season, earning home-court advantage in the series and advancing with a seven-game win over the Sacramento Kings. The Lakers won 43 games but overhauled the roster midseason and upset the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies in the first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs.
Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as 4.5-point home favorites, and tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 227 in the latest Lakers vs. Warriors odds. Before locking in any Warriors vs. Lakers picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference semifinals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 71-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Warriors and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Warriors vs. Lakers:
- Lakers vs. Warriors spread: Warriors -4.5
- Lakers vs. Warriors over/under: 227 points
- Lakers vs. Warriors money line: Warriors -190, Lakers +158
- LAL: The Lakers are 20-23-1 against the spread in road games
- GSW: The Warriors are 28-15-1 against the spread in home games
- Lakers vs. Warriors picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Lakers can cover
The Lakers won the first round with great defense, yielding fewer than 1.03 points per possession to the Grizzlies. Los Angeles also blocked more shots (9.2 per game) than any team in the first round of the playoffs, and the Lakers finished in the top five of the NBA in defensive efficiency after the All-Star break. Darvin Ham's team does have strong offensive bonafides as well, with the Lakers grabbing 30.4% of available offensive rebounds and producing 17.3 second-chance points per game against Memphis.
Los Angeles also averaged 19.2 fast break points per game in the series, and the Lakers have a pair of superstar offensive options in James and Davis. No team averaged more free throw attempts (26.6 per game) than Los Angeles during the regular season, and the Lakers finished in the top 10 of the league in points in the paint, fast break points, and field goal percentage during the 82-game marathon. See which side to back at SportsLine.
Why the Warriors can cover
While the attention was on Stephen Curry and the offense, the Warriors played extremely well on defense against the Kings. Golden State held the NBA's No. 1 offense to only 109.3 points per 100 possessions in the series, and the Warriors averaged 8.9 steals per game while allowing only 48.3 points in the paint per game. The Warriors also had above-average defensive metrics in opponent shooting and turnover creation during the regular season, and the Lakers shot just 34.6% from 3-point range in 2022-23.
Draymond Green and Kevon Looney anchor a dynamic unit and, with Andrew Wiggins returning for the playoffs, the Warriors can slow any offense. On the other end, the Warriors led the NBA in assists per game, assist percentage, and 3-pointers per game this season, and the duo of Curry and Klay Thompson brings nightmares for opposing defenses. Thompson led the NBA in total 3-pointers this season, and Curry reminded observers of his obscene upside with 50 points in Game 7 against the Kings. See which side to back at SportsLine.
How to make Warriors vs. Lakers picks
The model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 228 points. The model also says one side hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Lakers vs. Warriors? And which side hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has gone 71-38 on its NBA picks, and find out.
