NBA Playoffs 2019: Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Game 4 picks, odds and why taking the over is the best bet

Fatigue tends to impact defense more than offense, and Lillard is yet to really get going

By Brad Botkin

May 5, 2019 at 2:46 pm ET • 1 min read

The Portland Trail Blazers outlasted the Denver Nuggets 140-137 in a completely wild, four-overtime Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead, and are now coming into Game 4 as 3-point favorites to take a commanding 3-1 lead. Both teams have to be exhausted. Multiple players on both sides played 50-plus minutes less than 48 hours ago. CJ McCollum played 60 minutes. Nikola Jokic logged an unreal 65. This is going to be a war of attrition, and Denver is basically in a must-win situation.

Below is all the information for the point spread, money line and over/under for Nuggets-Blazers Game 4, with predictions for all.

*All lines via Westgate Sportsbook

Nuggets vs. Blazers ATS odds, pick

Line: Blazers -3
Analysis: Bouncing back from a loss like the one the Nuggets suffered in Game 3 is so tough -- not just physically but mentally. But these teams are so evenly matched; don't play too much into that theory that the Blazers' win in Game 3 was actually worth two wins. Denver was one of the best teams on back-to-backs this season. This is obviously a different scenario from a fatigue standpoint, but we do have evidence that this team can up its focus when others lose theirs. Still, I just don't trust the Nuggets' already inconsistent shooting on tired legs. I think Portland takes control here.
Pick: Blazers

Nuggets vs. Blazers O/U line, pick

Line: 210.5 total points
Analysis: Game 2 went under, and Game 3 was under at the end of regulation. The line has clearly been adjusted down accounting for the fatigue of both teams, but fatigue tends to show up a bit more on the defensive end. Damian Lillard hasn't fully gotten going in this series. This could be a big one for him. Don't underestimate the power of adrenaline -- take advantage of the low total.
Pick: Over