The Milwaukee Bucks host the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday evening, with the home team seeking a bounce-back victory. Indiana, meanwhile, enters Wednesday's matchup on a four-game winning streak. George Hill (groin) is probable to play for the Bucks, with Kyle Korver (back) ruled out. Victor Oladipo (knee) is questionable to play for Indiana.
Tip-off is at 7 p.m. ET at the Fiserv Forum. Sportsbooks list the Bucks as 11-point home favorites, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 222 in the latest Bucks vs. Pacers odds. Before you make any Pacers vs. Bucks picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated spread and money line picks. It's already returned well over $3,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 19 a blistering 47-30 on all top-rated spread picks this season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Bucks vs. Pacers spread: Bucks -11
- Bucks vs. Pacers over-under: 222 points
- Bucks vs. Pacers money line: Bucks -649, Pacers +472
- MIL: The Bucks are 4-3 against the spread in their last seven games
- IND: The Pacers are 4-2-1 against the spread in their last seven games
Why the Bucks can cover
The model knows that the Bucks are the best team in the NBA, and much of that effectiveness can be traced to their defense. Milwaukee is No. 1 in the NBA in points allowed per possession, and the difference between the Bucks and the No. 2 team is quite wide. Mike Budenholzer's team leads the way in defensive rebounding and shooting efficiency allowed, with elite metrics at keeping opponents away from the free throw line.
On the offensive side, the Bucks are also fantastic, with a top-three unit on a per-possession basis. Milwaukee has tremendous balance but, when it counts, the Bucks can also lean on one of the game's best players in Giannis Antetokounmpo and an elite No. 2 option in Khris Middleton.
Why the Pacers can cover
Even so, Milwaukee isn't a lock to cover the Pacers vs. Bucks spread on Wednesday. The model also realizes that the Pacers are playing quite well at the moment, as evidenced by four consecutive victories. Indiana is a talented, balanced offensive team, ranking in the top 10 of the NBA in shooting efficiency and in the top five when it comes to avoiding turnovers. Both will be key traits to focus on against Milwaukee, with TJ Warren and Domantas Sabonis able to threaten the Bucks on the interior with skill and size.
Defensively, the Pacers are quite good, with above-average metrics in creating turnovers, avoiding free throws and contesting shots on the perimeter. Milwaukee presents a tough task for any defense, but Indiana's best is enough to make things difficult on the home team.
How to make Pacers vs. Bucks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with Myles Turner and Brook Lopez projected to exceed their scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations.
So who wins Pacers vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Bucks vs. Pacers spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.