Two of the Western Conference's most polarizing teams face off on Tuesday, as James Harden leads the surging Houston Rockets into battle against the New Orleans Pelicans. Few teams have received more attention than Houston lately, given the eye-popping numbers James Harden has been putting up. Meanwhile, it is conceivable that every remaining New Orleans game could impact the outcome of the Anthony Davis saga, making the Pels a must-watch team right now. We do know Davis will miss Tuesday's game, leaving New Orleans a taste of what life without the Brow might be like. Tipoff from the Toyota Center is set for 8 p.m. ET. The Rockets opened as 9.5-point home favorites, but are laying 11.5 in the latest Rockets vs. Pelicans odds. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 234. Before you make any Pelicans vs. Rockets picks and NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks this season. It enters Week 16 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 187-136 record on all top-rated picks, returning over $4,000 to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread recently, entering Week 15 on a blistering 29-14 run. Anybody following it is up huge.
Now it has locked in on Pelicans vs. Rockets. We can tell you it's leaning under, but it has also locked in a confident against-the-spread pick that hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.
The model is well aware of how impactful Davis' absence is for New Orleans. The Pelicans have won just one of four games since AD went down with a finger injury. In fact, the Pels head into this game with just one win in their last six. That, coupled with Houston's recent winning streak, makes it easy to see why the Rockets are double-digit favorites, but covering is a different story.
Houston is finally getting healthy heading into this game, as Clint Capela is the only Rocket still missing. His replacement, Kenneth Faried, has been huge for Houston in its three-game winning streak. He's averaged 14.7 points and 10.7 rebounds in those games and has provided the spark Houston needed to bridge the gap in Capela's absence.
Just because Houston has been on a roll lately doesn't mean it will cover the Rockets vs. Pelicans spread Tuesday.
The model is also aware that Houston has been inconsistent in covering the spread lately, even in victories. It appears Vegas might be overvaluing the Rockets, as they've actually only covered in one of their past six games. In fact, Houston hasn't secured a double-digit victory in over two weeks, so beating New Orleans by more than 10 points is far from a lock.
Even amid all of the injuries, the Pelicans have been able to cover the spread in difficult road matchups against the Thunder, Grizzlies and Warriors recently. Holiday has fought to keep them in every game, and the All-Star candidate is averaging 24.2 points, 7.1 assists and 6.8 rebounds over his past five games.
So who wins Pelicans vs. Rockets? And which side of the spread hits in over half of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Pelicans vs. Rockets spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
