There are two lenses through which you can view this current Miami Heat team.
1. They chose to remain a sub-.500 team gunning for a bottom-feeder playoff seed rather than tank their way to more valuable draft picks, which then could've become trade assets to potentially package with one, or some, of their hippo-choking salaries, which could've then, perhaps, landed them the star they coveted all along. At the very least, they would have a few more lottery picks playing on a dime and under long-term team control as those aforementioned bad salaries slowly filter out.
2. They got their star anyway, Jimmy Butler, and besides that, all those playoff pursuits weren't for nothing. They maintained culture and Justise Winslow and Bam Adebayo developed accordingly. Their 2019 lottery pick, Tyler Herro, could be one of the steals of the draft, according to scouts who've spoken with CBS Sports. And in the top-heavy Eastern Conference, the Heat are right back in position to compete for a top-four seed with an avenue -- *cough cough* Chris Paul -- to perhaps even more than that.
Those who fall into the first camp think the Heat are chasing their tail, ever a move behind trying to make up for past mistakes. And now, they may have made another blunder in signing Butler to a max deal. There is legitimate skepticism as to how Butler will age, as there is with just about any high-usage player who long endured the demands of a Tom Thibodeau regime -- i.e. Joakim Noah, Luol Deng and Derrick Rose.
If Butler's true star value is indeed doomed to diminish at an accelerated rate, then the Heat have to win quickly to see a worthwhile return on their investment. Are they ready to do that? As training camp approaches, with Butler's season-opening press conference set for Friday and the Heat's Media Day for next Monday, that is very much the question.
Scouts who've spoken with CBS Sports believe Butler fits not just what the Heat do on both ends of the court, but the tough, no-excuse, pursue-winning-at-all-cost culture they have cultivated under Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra. But doesn't want to be a third wheel, or even a second wheel. He wants the ball, and he'll get it in Miami as the downhill, one-on-one force that can captain their drive-and-kick offense.
Miami loves dribble hand-offs, and Butler is plenty familiar with that after his stint with the Sixers, who hand off more than most NFL teams. Butler's two-man game with Adebayo is intriguing, particularly if Adebayo develops as at least a mid-range popper, which he has shown signs of being able to do. Miami likes pick-and-roll action but has lacked the elite scoring threat to initiate it. Butler is that guy, and in many ways was dying in Philadelphia for the consistent opportunity.
Winslow, of course, has stated his desire to play point guard, which would, at least conventionally, put him at the head of many of these actions. Though with Butler on board, you can't just give the ball to Winslow, even if he has improved as a shooter and offers an abundance of intrigue as a physical, developing playmaker. The best version of the Heat figures to have the ball in both Butler and Winslow's hands, but with preference to Butler as Winslow falls into a very valuable position-less role with fluid responsibilities, not just from game to game or matchup to matchup, but possession to possession.
Multiple playmakers and capable floor spacers are pillars of modern offense, and if you look up and down this Heat roster, there is enough of both to warrant optimism. Collectively, the Heat have, over the past few years, tended to shoot better than the sum of their individual shooters because they create comfortable, rhythmic 3-pointers with their non-stop dive-and-kicks.
Butler, again, takes that approach to another level, and Goran Dragic, Kelly Olynyk, Dion Waiters, James Johnson, Winslow and certainly the rookie Herro can all knock down 3s at a collective rate that should position Miami as a top-10-level team from distance. Duncan Robinson could find a role as a catch-and-shoot specialist. Derrick Jones Jr. forever feels like a guy about to take off, in more ways than one.
Couple all that with the playoff must-haves of a one-on-one star that can command a double team (Butler), and a tough, versatile defense -- which Miami, again led by Butler, Winslow and Adebayo, has at least the core pieces to form -- and suddenly you're looking at a solid, if imperfect team in a highly imperfect conference. The Bucks and 76ers, from a talent standpoint, are the clear top dogs, but after that you've got a bunch of perfectly vulnerable teams in Indiana, Boston, Brooklyn, Detroit, Orlando and Miami.
Why couldn't the Heat emerge from that group as a No. 3 seed?
And if they're on that track as the calendar turns to 2020, a potential deal for Chris Paul starts to become very, very intriguing. The Athletic's Shams Charania has already reported the Heat remain interested in Paul, but that they "will likely elect to see how [they] start the season before gauging a new pursuit of Paul." The Heat would have to get a deal done with the Oklahoma City Thunder without including Winslow or Adebayo otherwise they'd be taking on Paul's long-term money for a team too compromised in the short-term, but there doesn't figure to be a plethora of Paul pursuers given his massive contract (he's owed north of $38.5M this season plus around $85M in the remaining two years of his deal). A couple picks and some salary filler could eventually be enough. Herro could sweeten a deal, reluctantly.
Just as there are two ways to look at what the Heat have done of late -- and are continuing to do -- there are also two ways to look at a potential acquisition of Paul, whose contract will almost certainly age badly as he's already shown signs of an appreciable dip in production. But for right now? For this season? There's no way to argue a team with Jimmy Butler and Chris Paul (who hasn't fallen off nearly as much as the narrative suggests) wouldn't be at least a threat to challenge for the Eastern crown. They'd be a long shot, yes. But they would have a shot nonetheless.
For the Heat, that is always the goal. Put the best team you can on the floor and try to win. It's as simple as it is tough and stubborn. It's the Miami Heat way. And they suddenly look to be in pretty good position if you choose to take the optimistic view, to carry that plan out.
