There might not be a more interesting group of skill position players than the New England Patriots pass catchers. Year after year, the Pats have gotten by with pretty low-rent receivers (mostly, save the Randy Moss/Wes Welker run), knowing no matter what they put on the field, Rob Gronkowski was there to bail them out.
No more. Gronk is retired, even if rumors continue to percolate about the future Hall of Fame tight end returning once the season actually kicks off. Every year we saw this, but it's never felt more true: Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels manufacturing a high-end offense with this group of players might be the biggest challenge they've dealt with yet.
At tight end, the shakeout of the depth chart warrants watching. Benjamin Watson and Matt LaCosse are the early candidates to get the pole position, primarily based on money. Moving on quickly from Austin Seferian-Jenkins was surprising, but he was guaranteed minimal money in his contract and apparently had personal matters that needed attending.
Wide receiver is a much more interesting position because of the various players involved, how much they'll need to step up this year and the unknown of how the depth chart will shake out. The Patriots very well -- as I believe -- could simply become a full-bore power run team this year, leaning on Sony Michel and Damien Harris while grinding out games and keeping Tom Brady fresh for the postseason.
On the Pick Six Podcast (it's our daily NFL pod, you can listen to our breakdown of the AFC East battles below and subscribe right here), I've referred to them as a "Ferrari in the garage" team because of how I think the offense will operate. But they're still going to need guys to catch passes from Brady.
In the 2018 regular season, the Patriots had a total of 556 targets to wideouts, running backs and tight ends. Of those, 223 are now vacant thanks to Gronk, Chris Hogan, Josh Gordon and Cordarrelle Patterson leaving New England for various reasons. That's 40 percent of Brady's passes that need to be caught by someone else, and that's before we get into the possibility of someone like Rex Burkhead being cut by the Patriots before the season. Let's assume another small chunk of targets open up and they run the ball more to offset it. They're still replacing roughly 40 percent of targets as a whole.
Those are just some things to keep in mind as we run through the list of possible fits for this team at wideout.
Julian Edelman
The undisputed top dog in the passing game, Edelman could end up hogging more targets this year. He only played 12 games last season because of a suspension. His 16-game pace was 144 targets. But it's worth noting that Philip Dorsett -- still with the team -- had 26 targets the first four weeks and then didn't top three until Week 17. If you listen to the Jacoby Brissett interview on Pardon My Take when he talks about the Patriots trading him, Belichick basically said that Dorsett was an Edelman substitute/insurance plan of sorts when Brady's top receiver went down. Edelman should mop up a lot of targets that Dorsett had early in the season. Assuming he's able to play, of course. Edelman was spotted with a brace on his thumb and is expected to miss a few weeks with a "minor" injury.
Josh Gordon
Still technically a part of the team, Gordon's status is the ultimate wild card in all of this. He was emerging as the deep threat Brady missed for a long time when the Pats got him via trade with the Browns last year, until he had to step away from the team for personal reasons. Gordon's been in and out of the league so much it would be baseless to speculate about a return until something is imminent. If he did come back, he would presumably be the primary X receiver for the Patriots as soon as he steps on the field. I wouldn't expect to see him on the field for New England, but I would definitely take a late-round flier on him in fantasy, if that makes sense.
N'Keal Harry
The first wide receiver ever drafted by Belichick in the first round, Harry's status is like that of the tight ends. When there's a large investment in a player, you can bet the team will try to utilize him. We have not seen a ton of success from first-year receivers with the Patriots -- Aaron Dobson in 2013 holds the record for most receiving yards (519) by a rookie since Brady took over. Harry has a real chance to break that mark because of the situation unfolding in New England. With Edelman out for most of training camp, Harry will see a ton of reps as the primary target for Brady. He's a pretty good route runner with the size and strength to fight for separation with coverage on him. Brady working him with slants on third down or finding him for jump balls in the red zone after they get their timing down just feels like something the Patriots would have cooking in Year 1 with the talented former Arizona State product. Only six rookie wide receivers have ever gotten more than 30 targets from Brady in their first year. Given what's going on, Harry feels like a lock to become the seventh. If you're picking someone who is guaranteed a roster spot, has an immense level of talent, and fills a void the Patriots have, well, Harry is in a prime spot to eat up some percent of those 223 targets. Suffice to say a first-round pick is making the roster.
Philip Dorsett
As mentioned above, Dorsett saw his heaviest usage when Edelman was out of the lineup last year. It stands to reason with Edelman banged up that Dorsett is a lock to make the roster. He signed a $2.6 million deal with the Pats this offseason, which included a $500,000 signing bonus and $500,000 guaranteed. Cutting him would save $2.1 million in cap space, but the Patriots aren't deep at the wide receiver position right now and actually worked out four wide receivers -- Justin Hunter, Nick Williams, Papi White and Travin Duval -- following Edelman's recent injury. Dorsett has been on the team, has been productive, has a decent chunk of guaranteed money and is considered the Edelman replacement of sorts. He's not going anywhere.
Demaryius Thomas
A five-time Pro Bowler who has put up huge numbers for the Broncos in the past after being taken out of Georgia Tech (long live great NFL receivers emerging horrifically underused from Paul Johnson's triple option scheme), Thomas has a ton of name value when it comes to the Patriots depth chart. But he's probably fighting an uphill battle because of the Achilles injury he suffered last year in Week 16 after being traded from Denver to Houston. Thomas is another big-body receiver, like Harry and Gordon, indicating that the Patriots are probably leaning towards using a combo of an outside receiver and Watson/LaCosse to fill the void in targets left by Gronk's departure. Thomas has just $150,000 guaranteed and the Patriots can save $2.7 million if they release him. If he's healthy and looks like he can be productive, he can make the roster. But if he lacks explosion -- he is a 31 year old coming off a brutal injury for a wideout -- or Harry really develops quickly, Thomas is probably a roster casualty before the season.
Dontrelle Inman/Maurice Harris
Like Thomas and Harry, both are big guys, checking in at 6-foot-3 each. Inman actually ended up with $300,000 in guarantees from the Patriots in his deal which, as noted by ESPN's Mike Reiss, "isn't a minimum-level deal." Inman had an 800-yard season with the Chargers in 2016 (everyone was injured that year so he saw 97 targets from Philip Rivers). He's older (30) and hasn't been hyper productive (that's his best season) or efficient (60.8 career catch rate), though he did snag 71.8 percent of the passes thrown his way with the Colts last year. New England probably sees him as Harry insurance as well as a guy who can line up outside for them when they're going more snug and trying to pound the ball. Tom Curran of NBC Sports Boston described Inman as a possible "Chris Hogan-type signing," which is a smart comp. Harris, who played three years for the Redskins and produced his best year in 2018 with 304 yards, got just $90,000 in guaranteed money, per Reiss. He's a cheap depth play with some upside. Truly a Patriots offseason gambit. Follow the money, examine the injury, and Inman feels more likely than even Thomas to make the team. It would take an injury (or multiple?) for all three guys to end up on the roster.
Braxton Berrios/Jakobi Meyers/Damoun Patterson/Ryan Davis/Gunner Olszewski
The first two names on this list fascinate me, because both Berrios and Meyers are perfect future Patriots thanks to their ability to play out of the slot. We joked about Berrios being drafted by the Patriots for like two years before they actually did it. (Belichick disappointed everyone by passing on Hunter Renfroe this past offseason). Meyers, Davis and Olszewski were all undrafted free agents, while Berrios, a sixth-round pick last year, didn't catch a single ball in 2018. None of these guys are remotely safe.
The Roster Squeeze
The Pats entered last year with four running backs, fullback James Develin and just three wide receivers, plus a suspended Edelman who didn't count against the roster. New England would trade for Gordon within roughly the next two weeks. Eight total players at the two positions plus four tight ends. They likely had an inkling Gordon could be coming (?) or at least expected to make another move at the wideout position. The Pats released Kenjon Barner to activate Edelman last year for the purposes of maxing out the numbers.
The Pats are probably going to keep five wide receivers and five running backs, including Develin. That feels like the max, right? So you're talking about a serious squeeze in terms of who can make the roster.
You can lock in, unquestionably, at running back Sony Michel, James White and Damien Harris. Develin too. What the Patriots do with Brandon Bolden ($2 million guaranteed!) and Rex Burkhead could certainly affect the wide receiver depth chart. It seems pretty likely that one of the running backs could end up being shown the door.
Edelman and Harry are the only locks at wide receiver and they are both stone-cold locks. Dorsett would be a pretty shocking cut too. I think there's a very good bet Inman stays based on the money. That's four right there. Thomas could surprise if he's healthy, but it's really hard to come back from Achilles injury at his age and position. It's also possible Thomas starts the year on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, which would give the Pats some flexibility.
If Thomas is on the PUP and they only go with five running backs, maybe they try and work in a Harris or one of the younger slot guys like Berrios/Meyers. The latter two could certainly be practice squad candidates.
Never rule out a trade with the Patriots at the position either. See: Dorsett and Gordon. All told, it's a perfectly Patriots depth chart, with a couple of locks near the top and a chance for Belichick to churn the roster and find the players who best fit on the bottom part of the position.
