The NFL returns to Mexico this week, as the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals pay a visit to Estadio Azteca for a Monday night NFC West showdown. Both teams are coming off of wins, as the 49ers downed Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday night, while Colt McCoy took down the Los Angeles Rams. It was thought Kyler Murray could be back in the saddle this week, but it was reported on Monday morning that McCoy will once again be under center as Murray continues to deal with a hamstring injury. In what is good news for Arizona, star wideout DeAndre Hopkins is expected to play.
The 5-4 49ers currently own the final wild card spot in the NFC, but the 4-6 Cardinals are not far behind. There's plenty of football left to be played, and this matchup specifically could have major ramifications in the conference. Below, we will break down this matchup from a gambling perspective and examine the line movement, Over/Under and player props to consider. First, here's how you can watch Monday night's matchup.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Nov. 21 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Estadio Azteca (Mexico City, Mexico)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: 49ers -10, O/U 43
Line movement
This line reopened at SF -5.5 on Tuesday, Nov. 8, but quickly rose to SF -6 by day's end. Last Monday, it rose all the way to SF -8. This Monday morning, when it was reported Murray would not be playing, the line flew up to SF -10.
The pick: Cardinals +10. Our panel of eight CBS Sports NFL experts all took the 49ers -8. Throw in Tyler Sullivan and I, and all 10 CBS Sports gambling analysts suggested taking Garoppolo and Co. Now that the line is double digits, however, I find myself leaning the other way. McCoy actually played well against the Rams, completing 26 of 37 passes for 238 yards and one touchdown with a 96.5 rating. I think he's one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL, and if you watched him in his three starts last year, I'm sure you agree.
I have a feeling this game is going to feature a back-door cover one way or the other. It's certainly not one I included as a best bet.
Over/Under total
The total reopened at 45 on Tuesday, Nov. 8. It fell to 43.5 this past Monday, and then 43 on Sunday afternoon.
The pick: Under 43. Unders this season are hitting at a 57 percent clip, which is the highest in a season through Week 10 since 1991! The 49ers are 3-6 to the Over while the Cardinals are 5-4-1 to the Over. I envision a low-scoring affair that is headlined by the 49ers defense. The lean is to the Under.
Jimmy Garoppolo props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -125, Under -109)
Passing yards: 246.5 (Over -111, Under -123)
Passing attempts: 31.5 (Over -125, Under -109)
Passing completions: 22.5 (Over -101, Under -135)
Longest passing completion: 36.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +108, Under -148)
I don't have a great read on Garoppolo's passing yards number, but I will take the Unders on his passing attempts and passing completions. If Jimmy G completes 23 passes, it will be the third-most he has completed all season. If he attempts 32 passes, it will be the third-most he has attempted all season. Garoppolo hasn't thrown an interception in two straight contests, but give me the Over at plus money.
Player props
George Kittle receiving yards: Over 41.5 (-131). Kittle hasn't crossed this number in two straight games, but I believe that changes on Monday night. Even with the slow start he suffered through with the injury, Kittle is averaging 48.6 receiving yards per game.
Robbie Gould made field goals: Over 1.5 (-129). Gould has made three field goals in two out of his last three games. If I believe the Cardinals can lose by 10 or fewer points, then the 49ers will stall in the red zone at least once. Then, we can add another field goal from longer distance. I like this prop.
