The Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers will wrap up Week 9 in the NFL when these storied franchises go head to head tonight on "Monday Night Football." Pittsburgh comes into this game at 4-3 after a Week 8 victory over the Browns and is in the thick of the AFC playoff picture. Meanwhile, the Bears are looking to bounce back from a loss to the 49ers at home that pushed them to 3-5.
Below, we'll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this prime-time matchup has in store for us. We'll be taking a look at how the lines have shifted throughout the week leading into Monday night and, of course, give you our picks along with a handful of our favorite player props.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
The Steelers opened as a 5.5-point favorite and that advantage dipped down to Steelers -5 coming out of Sunday. However, it didn't take long for this number to leap up over its initial line to Steelers -6.5 before increasing to -7.
The pick: Bears +7. Despite losing three straight coming into Monday night, Justin Fields seems to be getting better with each passing week and just turned in arguably his best performance of the season against the 49ers. In Week 8, he completed 70% of his passes and rushed for 103 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, the Steelers could be in for a letdown after clawing their way to a win against Cleveland last week.
Key trend: Steelers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as favorite.
Bettors seemingly like the Under in this matchup and have dragged this number down quite a bit. Since opening at 41, the total for this game stands at 39.
The pick: Under 39. Both of these teams have essentially lived on the Under to start the season. The Under is 5-1-1 for the Steelers entering Week 9, while it is 6-2 for Chicago. While this does feel like a low number, it's not unwarranted as these are two of the lowest-scoring offenses in the NFL. Pittsburgh is averaging 18.9 points per game (26th in the NFL) and the Bears are putting up just 15.4 points per game, which is the second-lowest mark in the league and only above the Texans. When you match those offenses with two solid defenses, points may be hard to come by on Monday.
Key trend: Under is 6-1-1 in the Steelers last eight games as a home favorite.
Ben Roethlisberger props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
- Passing yards: 245.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
Ben Roethlisberger has only one multi-touchdown game to his name this season and just held Jimmy Garoppolo from throwing a touchdown last week (he did rush for two scores). Meanwhile, Roethlisberger has gone over this passing yards prop in four of his seven games this season. However, the Bears are allowing opposing quarterbacks to 232.5 passing yards per game this season.
Justin Fields props
- Passing yards: 185.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
Fields has only topped this passing yard total once this season and it came back in Week 4 against Detroit. He has dropped back to pass an average of 28.6 times over the last three weeks, so it's possible if that workload continues that he jumps over this total.
Player props to consider
Najee Harris total rushing yards: Over 81.5 (-115). Harris has seen 20-plus carries in each of the last three games and is going up against a Bears run defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in DVOA. Chicago was also just run over by Elijah Mitchell for 137 yards in Week 8. With the type of volume Harris is projected against and the opponent he's facing, he should be in a position to go over.
Cole Kmet total receiving yards: Over 27.5 (-115). Kmet has seen a steady target share over the last three weeks, averaging about 5.6 targets per game. That's allowed him to go over this prop in two of the last three games and now has a favorable matchup against Pittsburgh. Heading into Week 9, the Steelers are allowing 47.7 yards per game to opposing tight ends on a 10.4 yards per reception average.