Bills vs. Commanders odds, picks, line, how to watch, live stream: Model reveals 2023 Week 3 NFL predictions

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The Buffalo Bills will remain on the East Coast for the third straight week when they play the Washington Commanders on Sunday on CBS and Paramount+. The Commanders are one of nine undefeated teams left after wins over the Cardinals and Broncos to open the 2023 NFL season. The Bills have their franchise quarterback question answered with Josh Allen, who has thrown for at least 4,200 yards in his last three seasons. However, the Commanders have been seeking consistency at quarterback since losing Kirk Cousins after the 2017 season. Sam Howell completed 27 of 39 passes for 299 yards and two touchdowns in his third career start for Washington last week against the Broncos. Could he be their long-term answer at quarterback? You can stream the game in select markets on Paramount+, which you can now try free for the first seven days when you sign up here.

Kickoff from FedEx Field is set for 1 p.m. ET. Buffalo is a 5.5-point favorite in the latest Commanders vs. Bills odds from the SportsLine consensus, and the over/under for total points is 43. Sunday's matchup can be seen live on CBS and streamed live on Paramount+ with their must-have Paramount+ with SHOWTIME plan.

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How to watch Bills vs. Commanders

Commanders vs. Bills date: Sunday, Sept. 24
Commanders vs. Bills time: 1 p.m. ET
Commanders vs. Bills TV channel: CBS
Commanders vs. Bills streaming: Paramount+ (7-day free trial)

Week 3 NFL picks for Commanders vs. Bills

Before tuning into Sunday's Bills vs. Commanders game, you need to see the NFL picks from SportsLine's advanced computer model. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 164-117 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 18-9 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

For Commanders vs. Bills, the model is going Over 43 total points. The two teams rank in the top-10 in scoring offense this season, with Washington averaging 27.5 points and the Bills averaging 27.0. They are both coming off offensive weeks in which Buffalo won 38-10 against the Raiders and Washington defeated the Broncos, 35-33. The Bills have finished with a top-three scoring offense the last three seasons, averaging 29.4 points per game over that stretch. Whatever offseason tension may have occurred between Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs hasn't translated onto the field since Allen is averaging 255 passing yards per game and Diggs has been his top option, averaging 84 yards and 10 targets per game.

Teams have been able to run against the Buffalo defense to begin the season. The Bills are surrendering 5.3 yards per carry, which is the second most in the NFL. Brian Robinson Jr. rushed for 87 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries last week and could see similar success this weekend at home against Buffalo to add a spark to the Washington offense. After scoring 35 points against the Broncos last week, Howell appears to become more comfortable in the offense every week and with both team's offensive prowess to begin the season, the model has the Over hitting in 50% of simulations. You may be able to stream the game here.