NFL: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Jets host the Buffalo Bills in an AFC East showdown on Sunday. The Jets are in search of their first win in 2020, with an unsightly 0-6 record to this point in the calendar. Buffalo enters at 4-2 on the season, though the Bills have lost the last two games to the Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs after starting the year 4-0. The Jets have a point differential of minus-18.3 this season, while the Bills are at minus-two.

Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium. William Hill lists the Bills as 10-point road favorites, down a field goal from the opener. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas expects to be scored, is 46 in the latest Bills vs. Jets odds. Before making any Jets vs. Bills picks, check out the latest NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,800 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It's off to a strong 14-6 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model is also on an incredible 110-71 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Bills vs. Jets 10,000 times. You can visit SportsLine to see the picks. Here are the NFL lines from William Hill and trends for Jets vs. Bills:

  • Bills vs. Jets spread: Bills -10
  • Bills vs. Jets over-under: 46 points
  • Bills vs. Jets money line: Bills -550, Jets +425
  • BUF: Bills are 3-3 against the spread in six games this season
  • NYJ: Jets are winless against the spread in 2020

Why the Bills can cover

The Bills are an explosive offensive team, and everything begins with Josh Allen at the quarterback position. Allen has thrown for 1,711 yards and 16 touchdowns this season, completing 67 percent of his passes and averaging nearly eight yards per pass attempt.

Allen was erratic at times before 2020, but this season he has only four interceptions. Allen is also a threat on the ground, with more than 1,200 career rushing yards in less than three seasons at the helm.

The Bills have the sixth-best passing offense in the NFL this season, and Buffalo ranks second in touchdown passes and seventh in quarterback rating. Buffalo hasn't been as dominant on defense so far this season, though the Bills have faced a very difficult schedule of opposing offenses including the Rams, Raiders, Titans and Chiefs. Given that the Jets are the league's worst offensive team in 2020, the Bills could find their footing in short order.

Why the Jets can cover

Offensively, the Jets are struggling mightily, but wide receiver Jamison Crowder (questionable) is a bright spot, giving Darnold a weapon if he's able to play. The veteran wide receiver has 29 catches for 383 yards and two touchdowns this season and, as a team, the Jets rank in the top ten at avoiding turnovers, with just six giveaways this season. The Bills are also scuffling on the defensive side, including a bottom-10 mark in total yards allowed. Buffalo is eighth-worst in the NFL in run defense, giving up 131.3 yards per game.

Buffalo ranks fifth-worst in completion percentage allowed at 70.3 percent, and the Bills have allowed 12 passing touchdowns while only grabbing two interceptions this season. Defensively, the Jets have seven interceptions already, tied for fourth-most in the NFL, and New York is above-average in run defense, giving up only 4.2 yards per carry.

How to make Bills vs. Jets picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with Darnold projected for more interceptions than touchdowns and no Bills rusher projected for more than 60 yards. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in nearly 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick here

So who wins Jets vs. Bills? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Jets spread to jump on Sunday, all from the advanced model that is up over $7,800 on its NFL picks, and find out.