Two AFC North teams face off on this week's edition of "Sunday Night Football," as Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns travel to Baltimore to take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. The Browns are coming off of a 13-10 win over the Detroit Lions that felt more like a loss. At 6-5, they are still sitting pretty when it comes to the playoff race, but Mayfield's lingering injuries are reason to worry.
As for the 7-3 Ravens, Tyler Huntley was able to find a way to lead this team to a 16-13 victory against the Chicago Bears after their embarrassing loss to the Miami Dolphins a couple of weeks ago. They still hold a thin lead in the AFC North, and are currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC. The division and conference as a whole are completely up for grabs, so this is an important game.
The Ravens have won the past three meetings against the Browns, with their last matchup coming in December in a Monday night thriller, when Baltimore escaped Cleveland with a 47-42 victory. Below, we will break down this matchup from a gambling perspective and examine the line movement, Over/Under and player props to consider. First, here's how you can watch Sunday's matchup.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Nov. 28 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore, MD)
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Ravens -3.5, O/U 47
Line movement
The line reopened at Ravens -4.5 on Sunday night. It moved down half a point to Ravens -4 on Tuesday, and then down another half point to Ravens -3.5 the following morning.
The pick: Ravens -3.5. This game is actually one of my top five picks of the week. You can click here for my full spiel, but I'm worried about the Browns moving forward. Mayfield is clearly hurt, which makes this offense one-dimensional. The Browns really should have lost to the Lions last week, and it seems as though things are going from bad to worse. After two bad performances, we had Mayfield firing back at some of Cleveland's faithful after he was booed at home last week. The Ravens may not be the best team in the AFC, but I like them to cover 3.5 points and more against the Browns.
Over/Under 47
This total reopened at 46.5 on Sunday night, fell half a point to 46 on Tuesday morning and then rose to 47 on Thursday.
The pick: Under 47. The total in this matchup is something I won't be touching. Some trends point to this game going Over -- especially since their last meeting had 89 total points -- but I think everyone can agree that these two teams are capable of snoozefests. The Browns have scored a combined 20 points over the last two games! The lean is to the Under.
Baker Mayfield props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +150, Under -180)
Passing yards: 207.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
Passing attempts: 27.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
Passing completions: 17.5 (Over -135, Under +105)
Longest passing completion: 34.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +110, Under -140)
I would stay away from Mayfield's completion and attempts number. It's true 17.5 completions may seem a tad low, but he hasn't crossed this number since Halloween. In defense of the Over, the Browns could be throwing a lot if the Ravens go up early. As for the passing yards, however, I like the Over. Another bet I really like is for Mayfield to thrown an interception at plus money. He's thrown three over the last two games.
Lamar Jackson props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
Passing yards: 234.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
Passing attempts: OFF
Passing completions: 19.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
Longest passing completion: 36.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +100, Under -130)
Lamar Jackson rushing yards: 65.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
Lamar Jackson rushing attempts: 10.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
I usually like passing touchdown props, but I won't make a best bet with Jackson. As for passing yards, the lean is to the Over, as he has crossed this number in each of his last three outings. The Over on Jackson's passing completions is enticing as well, as he's completed at least 26 passes over the last two games. Jackson rushing props are always fun, but I don't see any value on either side for yards or attempts. He could explode for 21 carries like he did against the Minnesota Vikings, or rush nine times for 50 yards.
Player props
Austin Hooper receptions: Over 2.5 (+110). Hooper has caught at least four passes in three out of his past four games played. I think there's good value here.
Jarvis Landry receiving yards: Over 44.5 (-120). I'll take a flier on the Over when it comes to Landry's receiving yards. He hasn't recorded even 30 receiving yards in a game since Halloween, but Mayfield has been trying to get him the ball. He's been targeted 13 times over the past two games.
