Two teams coming off of tough losses square off this week, as the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Philly to take on the Eagles. Patrick Mahomes has now dropped two straight, as his Chiefs lost to the Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday 30-24. The Chiefs are now in last place in the AFC West. This is the first time Kansas City has been under .500 since Week 10 in 2015. That snaps a streak of 89 straight games after which they had a season record of .500 or better.
The Eagles are on a short week, as they were blasted by the Dallas Cowboys on "Monday Night Football" 41-21. Jalen Hurts threw two interceptions and their running backs recorded three total carries all game. The offensive line was also atrocious, as it contributed several flags to the 13 total the Eagles drew on Monday night.
The all-time series between these two teams is tied at four apiece, but the Chiefs have won the past two meetings. Below, we will break down this matchup from a gambling perspective and examine the line movement, Over/Under and player props to consider. First, here's how you can watch Sunday's matchup.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Oct. 3 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chiefs -6.5, O/U 54.5
Line movement
This line reopened KC -6 on Sunday, but increased to as high as KC -7.5 on Tuesday before closing at KC -7 at the end of the day. The line then dropped half a point to KC -6.5 on Friday for a moment before going back up to KC -7 -- and then back to KC -6.5 on Saturday.
The pick: Chiefs -7. This game was actually one of my top five picks of the week. Here's my thought process:
"It's wild that the Chiefs are in last place in the AFC West right now. This is the first time they've been under .500 since Week 10 in 2015. After a divisional loss, you know Patrick Mahomes and Co. have to be more motivated than ever, and they have a chance to take out some frustration against a flailing Eagles team.
"The Dallas Cowboys defense is improved, but the Eagles offense did not look good on Monday night. Philly's first touchdown was scored by the defense and the last score was a garbage-time touchdown that didn't mean anything. The Chiefs are 0-3 against the spread this season, but they have faced three good teams. This could be a spot for the Chiefs to regroup with a big road win. People may be tempted to buy half a point, but it might not be necessary."
Over/Under 54.5
The total reopened at 55 on Sunday, but dropped to 54.5 on Tuesday.
The pick: Under 54.5. I'm not going to bet on this total, but my lean goes to the Under. The Under has hit in nine of Philadelphia's last 13 games. Their Week 1 32-6 victory over the Atlanta Falcons was clearly an outlier, as the Eagles scored just 11 points at home against the San Francisco 49ers and then just 14 against the Cowboys before a garbage-time touchdown. The Chiefs' defense definitely has problems, but I don't think Hurts is going to light them up for 30 points.
Player props
Tyreek Hill receiving yards: Over 77.5 (-115). Hill hasn't been able to surpass this number over the last two games, but I feel like he's due. If I'm correct about the Chiefs recording a big road win, then Hill is going to have a nice game.
Dallas Goedert receiving yards: Over 31.5 (-115). I feel like this line is too low. Goedert caught just two passes last week against the Cowboys, but picked up 66 yards on those two touches. He will take advantage of the Chiefs' linebackers in coverage.
Jalen Hurts pass completions: Over 20.5 (-120). My game script has the Eagles having to throw the ball to keep up. Hurts completed 25 passes last week and 27 in Week 1. Nick Sirianni clearly doesn't have any interest in trying to establish the run, so why not take advantage of this low number?
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