The Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos will collide on Thursday Night Football at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs (4-1) lead the AFC West by 1.5 games over the Chargers (2-2) and are tied with the Dolphins for the best record in the AFC. Patrick Mahomes and company coming off a 27-20 victory at Minnesota. The Broncos (1-4) sit at the bottom of the AFC West and are tied with the Patriots for the worst record in the conference. Last Sunday, Denver lost to the struggling Jets, 31-21. Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is officially active with an ankle injury.
Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET in Kansas City. Kansas City is a 10.5-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 47 in the latest Chiefs vs. Broncos odds. Before making any Broncos vs. Chiefs picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 171-119 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 25-11 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Broncos and just locked in its picks and Thursday Night Football predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Broncos vs. Chiefs:
- Chiefs vs. Broncos spread: Chiefs -10.5
- Chiefs vs. Broncos over/under: 47 points
- Chiefs vs. Broncos money line: Chiefs -565, Broncos +417
- DEN: Broncos are 0-4-1 against the spread this season
- KC: Chiefs are 3-2 against the spread this season
- Chiefs vs. Broncos picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Broncos can cover
Denver's offense has performed better than the team's 1-4 record would suggest. Led by Russell Wilson, the Broncos are averaging more than 24 points per game and ranking in the top 10 of the NFL with 2.26 points per offensive possession. On the ground, Denver is reeling off 4.9 yards per carry, a top-five mark in the league, and the Broncos are putting up 5.8 yards per play. Wilson has been strong individually, throwing 11 touchdown passes to land in the top five of the NFL.
The nine-time Pro Bowl selection has more than 1,200 passing yards and only two interceptions, ranking near the top of the NFL in touchdown rate (6.7%) and interception avoidance rate (1.2%) this season. Wilson is No. 4 in the league in passer rating (106.1) while averaging 7.4 yards per attempt, and he remains a dual-threat option out of the backfield. Wilson and the Broncos will face a Chiefs defense that is yielding 4.3 yards per carry, No. 22 in the NFL, and Kansas City has only one interception in five games. See which team to pick here.
Why the Chiefs can cover
Kansas City has owned the head-to-head series against Denver over the last eight years. The Chiefs have won the last 15 games against the Broncos, who have not beaten Kansas City since Week 2 of the 2015 season. That's tied for the fourth longest win streak by any team over another in NFL history.
In addition, the Chiefs face a Denver defense that has been historically bad to start the season. The Broncos have given up 181 points so far this season. That's tied for the sixth most points allowed through five games of a season in NFL history. Since 1962, it is tied for the second most. See which team to pick here.
How to make Chiefs vs. Broncos picks on TNF
SportsLine's model is leaning Over the point total, calling for 52 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only see the model's TNF picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Broncos vs. Chiefs on Thursday Night Football, and which side of the spread cashes almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Broncos vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 171-119 roll on NFL picks, and find out.
