For the Gambler in You, Week 6: Saints could dominate Patriots

Unlike Tom Brady, Drew Brees has downfield playmakers. (USATSI)

Each week, we'll take the best -- and most clever -- odds collected by Bovada for the upcoming week and give our take. This is important stuff, perhaps the most important post you’ll read all week. Because if you can’t lose money while watching a game in which you have absolutely no effect, what’s the point of watching sports at all?

Note: Home team is listed first in Against the Spread.

Game One: Patriots -2.5 vs. Saints
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

2013 Against The Spread
Overall: 2-3 Overall: 4-1
Home: 1-1 Home: 3-0
Away: 1-2 Away: 1-1
2013 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 21st Pass defense: 12th
Rush offense: 14th Rush defense: 17th
Pass defense: 14th Pass offense: 2nd
Rush defense: 22nd Rush offense: 26th

Verdict: The Saints are only one of three undefeated teams, and the Patriots sole loss ties them with two others for the second-best record in the league. It's basically a pick 'em matchup, and it very well could be a close contest. But I also think New Orleans could have a big day. Nobody has figured out how to stop tight end Jimmy Graham, and Drew Brees has been stellar this season with versatile offensive weapons like Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas. New England's defense actually has been solid, but even with Tom Brady, the Patriots offense has struggled this season. And still, no Rob Gronkowski. Go New Orleans, because it might be a more lopsided game than people think.

Game Two: Jets -2.5 vs. Steelers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET CBS

2013 Against The Spread
Overall: 4-1 Overall: 0-4
Home: 2-0 Home: 0-2
Away: 2-1 Away: 0-2
2013 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 19th Pass defense: 5th
Rush offense: 11th Rush defense: 24th
Pass defense: 13th Pass offense: 9th
Rush defense: 2nd Rush offense: 31st

Verdict: When the line first came out, it was Jets +3.5 -- which, for the life of me, I could not figure out. The Jets have shown plenty of life this season and are 3-2 (who in the heck would have guessed that a month ago?), and the Steelers have shown almost none and haven't won a game (who in the heck would have guessed that a month ago?). One of the main reasons I like this game: the Jets defensive line should dominate the Steelers offensive line. That means Pittsburgh can't pass and can't run, and if the Jets offense is just decent enough, New York should grab another victory. Go with the Jets to cover. 

Game Three (largest spread of week): Broncos -26.5 vs. Jaguars
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

2013 Against The Spread
Overall: 3-2 Overall: 0-5
Home: 2-1 Home: 0-2
Away: 1-1 Away: 0-3
2013 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 1st Pass defense: 10th
Rush offense: 15th Rush defense: 30th
Pass defense: 29th Pass offense: 29th
Rush defense: 1st Rush offense: 30th

Verdict: This game started at -28, and as I told you earlier this week, I like the Jaguars to lose by less than four touchdowns. Now, we list it at -26.5, but I find this unacceptable. If it's 26.5 points, that's not an NFL record line, and I'll be damned if I let this be taken away from us. It's 28 points in my heart and my soul, and with that, I'm going with the Jaguars, mostly because of the largest seven points spreads in history, the favorite has covered only once. Too many factors have to go right for the Broncos to win by so much, and I don't think they'll get it done.


Will the Broncos score 50 or more points Week 6 vs. the Jaguars?

Yes   +150 (3/2)

No    -200 (1/2)

In order for my bet from above to be correct while Denver scores 50 means the Jaguars would have to score at least 24 points. I don’t see that happening. So, I’ll go under on this one just to be consistent.

Broncos total punts in the game Week 6 vs. the Jaguars?    

Over/Under  1.5

Man, I love that this is a prop bet. I’m thinking over, especially if Broncos backup quarterback Brock Osweiler gets plenty of playing time.

Who will win by a higher margin? (Note: Alabama is currently a 27.5 point favorite)

Denver Week 6 vs. Jacksonville   EVEN (1/1)

Alabama October 12th vs. Kentucky   -140 (5/7)

John Fox has more compassion than Nick Saban. Go with the Crimson Tide here.

Last week: 2-1 against the spread; 0-2 on prop bets. Overall this year: 9-6 against the spread, 5-7 on prop bets. Last two years: 35-41 against the spread; 39-24-1 on prop bets.

See my picks and all the experts here.

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