Week 4 of the NFL season starts Thursday with the Green Bay Packers hosting the Chicago Bears in an NFC North showdown.

The Vegas line is Packers -7, meaning Vegas thinks Green Bay will win by a touchdown. It has fallen a half-point from the opening line of Packers -7.5.

The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored in the game, is 44, down from its open of 45.5.

Before you make any bets on Packers-Bears, you'll want to hear what SportsLine Stat Geek R.J. White has to say.

Last week, White told SportsLine readers to hammer the Bengals +8.5 at Green Bay and nailed his prediction: "Aaron Rodgers is still going to win this game at home, but it'll be closer than people expect." The Packers won by three, but it took overtime and they failed to cover.

Amazingly, it was his 13th straight winning pick on Packers games against the spread. Seriously -- he has nailed 13 picks in a row for or against Green Bay.

Part of his success: White has years of experience analyzing NFL statistics and trends, dating all the way back to Super Bowl XXV. He finished in the top two percent in the nation's most prestigious handicapping contest and has his pulse on NFL spreads.

Now, he's going for 14 winning Packers picks in a row on "Thursday Night Football," and he's sharing it over at SportsLine.

White knows Rodgers has been especially productive at home (58-15 record with a 108.8 QB rating) and against the Bears (14-4 record, 4,417 yards, 38 touchdowns, nine interceptions). Rodgers is second in the NFL in yards (967), fourth in TDs (six), and first in completions (89). He'll get WR Randall Cobb back on Thursday night.

He also knows the Bears rank 21st in net yards per attempt through three games and haven't managed an interception this season.

But that doesn't mean the Packers cover. The Bears just beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in overtime and rushed for 220 yards. Running back Jordan Howard had 138 of those and found the end zone twice, including the game-winner. Tarik Cohen added another 78 on the ground for Chicago.

And the Bears' strength is the Packers' weakness. Green Bay ranks in the bottom third of the league in run defense (113.7 yards per game), so White expects Chicago to attack the Pack with Howard and Cohen.

So it's no surprise White is leaning toward the Under on "Thursday Night Football," but what about the spread, which he has made his name picking?

He knows there's a critical stat no one is thinking about that ultimately determines the point spread winner for Bears-Packers. And SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh agrees with him.

So which side should you back in Bears-Packers on "Thursday Night Football?" Visit SportsLine now to see what critical stat determines which side you need to be all over, all from the expert who has nailed his past 13 Packers picks, and find out.