The final game of the Week 3 NFL schedule features two of the season's most surprising teams when the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET, and after opening as 2.5-point underdogs, the Bucs are now favored by one. The Over-Under for total points scored is 54.5, up 4.5 from the opener. Before you make any Steelers vs. Buccaneers picks, check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say. The model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, and it just crunched the numbers for Monday Night Football.
In a straight-up format, the proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and 2017, performing better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, the computer went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
It also nailed its three top-rated picks in Week 2, including backing the Chiefs against the spread (+4.5) and on the money line (+170) for their big upset of the Steelers. It's now 5-2 on top-rated picks this season, extending its run to 53-36.
For Bucs vs. Steelers, we can tell you the model loves the Under, which hits in 68 percent of simulations, but it also has generated a strong spread selection that hits well over half the time. This pick is only available at SportsLine.
The model knows this is a crucial game for two clubs that defied expectations on opposing ends of the spectrum. The Steelers were expected to roll through their division and possibly contend for a 2019 Super Bowl berth, but they remain winless after two games. The Bucs were widely projected as one of the NFL's worst teams, but started the season with two upsets in convincing fashion.
The Steelers remain plagued by distractions centered around the continued holdout of star running back Le'Veon Bell and tweets from Antonio Brown. On the field, they remain plagued by a defense that has been unable to slow down the opposition. Pittsburgh blew a two-touchdown lead in a season-opening 21-21 tie with Browns and is coming off a 42-37 to loss to the Chiefs in which it spotted Kansas City a three-touchdown lead.
Needless to say, the Steelers (0-1-1) are in desperate need of a win, but that doesn't mean they are destined to cover as slight underdogs against a Bucs (2-0) team that has emphatically defied meager expectations.
Tampa Bay is coming off a five-win season in which it had the NFL's worst defense, and it began the 2018 campaign with starting quarterback Jameis Winston sidelined by a three-game suspension.
The Bucs were the biggest underdog on the board in Week 1 (+10) at New Orleans, but behind 417 yards and four touchdowns from journeyman quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, they pulled the 48-40 upset. Fitzpatrick threw for 402 yards and four more scores last week, and the defense made key stops in a 27-21 upset as a three-point underdog against the Super Bowl champion Eagles.
Who wins Steelers-Bucs? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on Monday, all from the computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors over the past two seasons.
