There are just two weeks remaining in the 2023 NFL regular season, which means about half of NFL fans are turning their attention to free agency and the 2024 NFL Draft. For months now, the Chicago Bears have been the favorites to "clinch" the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, and that's not because they stink. In fact, Chicago is actually still in playoff contention! The Bears are favorites to select first this year because of a trade they made this past offseason.
Back in March, the Bears sold the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to the Carolina Panthers for wide receiver D.J. Moore, two picks in the 2023 draft, Carolina's 2024 first-round pick and a 2025 second-round pick. The Panthers used that pick to select Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, but the rookie hasn't helped Carolina's rebuild. The Panthers are the worst team in the NFL at 2-13, which benefits the Bears, who again, own the Panthers' first-round pick in this draft.
According to SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh, the Bears (via the Panthers), have a 95.5% chance to win that No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Who else could challenge Chicago? The Arizona Cardinals have a 4.4% chance, while the rest of the NFL has a 0.1% chance. Carolina currently sits at 2-13, while Arizona is 3-12. If you were curious, the Panthers finish out the season with the Jacksonville Jaguars in Florida this weekend, and then play at home vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As for the Cardinals, they pay a visit to the Philadelphia Eagles this week, then wrap up the season at home vs. the rival Seattle Seahawks.
In the event where a tiebreaker is needed, here is what the NFL says will happen next:
In situations where teams finished the previous season with identical records, the determination of draft position is decided by strength of schedule — the aggregate winning percentage of a team's opponents. The team that played the schedule with the lowest winning percentage will be awarded the higher pick.
If the teams have the same strength of schedule, division or conference tiebreakers are applied. If the divisional or conference tiebreakers are not applicable, or ties still exist between teams of different conferences, ties will be broken the following tie-breaking method:
- Head-to-head, if applicable
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games (minimum of four)
- Strength of victory in all games
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
- Best net points in all games
- Best net touchdowns in all games
- Coin toss
Now that the Bears will likely have the top pick in the draft, it's fair to begin speculating what Chicago could do with that pick. Does general manager Ryan Poles again sell it to the highest bidder? Does he take a quarterback to replace Justin Fields, such as Caleb Williams or Drake Maye? It seems like Bears fans have already started the debate. On Christmas Eve, one Chicago sports fan posted on social media that the Bears should draft Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., and keep Fields at quarterback. Williams saw the post, and gave it a "like."
As of now, all three of our CBS Sports NFL Draft experts have Williams going No. 1 overall to the Bears.
