Without help from the rest of the NFC South, the 7-8 New Orleans Saints are very likely to miss the postseason for the third straight year.
Head coach Dennis Allen is finishing his second year at the helm in post-Sean Payton New Orleans. And quarterback Derek Carr has had an injury-filled first season as the signal caller.
Sources tell CBS Sports the expectation as of now is that both men will return to the Saints in 2024, but there's a belief the Saints could make a change at offensive coordinator.
Pete Carmichael has been with the Saints since 2006, and he's been the offensive coordinator since 2009. Payton was the primary play-caller when he was the head coach, and after his departure Carmichael took control of the headset in 2022.
Last year the Saints finished 19th in yards and 22nd in points. This year they showed some improvement in both categories, placing 14th in yards and 13th in points scored with Carr at quarterback.
Carr has put up decent numbers this season, with 19 passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. He's completed 67.4 percent of his passes, and his 93.6 passer rating is good for 11th in the league — just a tick below Josh Allen and higher than Justin Herbert's. But there's been a conspicuous lack of a killer instinct with Carr all season.
Carr signed a four-year, $150 million contract in March that, in actuality, was a two-year, $70 million contract that the Saints could get out of with relatively little cap penalty after the 2024 season.
With all the other cap issues they anticipate this upcoming offseason, it's hard to imagine the Saints could get out of Carr's contract this offseason if they wanted to.
The Saints could hope for a career renaissance similar to Jared Goff or Baker Mayfield, who have thrived with a new play-caller in Detroit and Tampa, respectively.
The OC job itself would come with some pros and cons, though. The next play-caller would have to come in with the belief that the 32-year-old Carr is fixable. And with a defensive-minded head coach, there'd be no question about the OC's control over the offense. And the top-10 defense will keep you in games in what's a winnable NFC South division.
But the head coach, should he be retained, will enter 2024 with a warm seat. The Saints entered 2023 with the second-oldest roster in the league at an average of 26.94 years, nearly a full year older than the league average. Though the team has kicked the salary-cap can down the road for years, painful cuts are anticipated yet again come March.
The Saints finish the year at Tampa and at home against the Falcons. A loss Sunday to the division-leading Buccaneers will eliminate them from playoff contention.
