As the only team in the Week 4 NFL spreads favored by more than 5.5 points, the Green Bay Packers (-10.5) could be one of the popular NFL survivor pool picks against the New England Patriots. Mac Jones is expected to miss several games with a high-ankle sprain and Brian Hoyer is now in line to start for the Patriots. However, we've seen backup quarterbacks like Cooper Rush and Jimmy Garoppolo lead teams to surprising victories already this season, so how should you approach the game in your NFL knockout pool picks?

There are plenty of ways your NFL survivor pool strategy can pay off in the long-haul. Before finalizing any Week 4 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 139-103 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds from Caesars and locked in its Week 4 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 4 NFL survivor pool predictions 

In Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season, we can tell you the model is shying away from the Carolina Panthers (1-2), even though they are home favorites over the Arizona Cardinals (1-2). Both teams are off to identical starts, but the Cardinals have had to play three teams that were in the postseason last year, while the Panthers haven't had to play a single playoff team yet.

After being outgained by 206 yards in Week 1 against the Chiefs, the Cardinals have outgained their last two opponents, defeating the Raiders in overtime in Week 2 and losing to the Rams last week. The Panthers have been outgained by 217 yards overall this season and the model has no interest in backing a side that hasn't put together a dominant performance yet. See which team to pick here.

How to make Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, the model is backing a shocking team that is well-positioned to deliver a win in Week 4. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 4 survivor pool pick? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 4, all from the advanced computer model that consistently crushes the NFL, and find out.