The Seattle Seahawks are looking to stay perfect on the season when Pete Carroll's club hosts the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football. Seattle is fresh off a Week 4 win over the Miami Dolphins and comes into this head-to-head with Minnesota rocking the second-highest scoring offense (35.5 points per game) in the entire NFL along with an undefeated record. As for the Vikings, they are looking to build momentum after gaining their first win of 2020 by defeating the Texans in Houston last week.
Not only are the Seahawks 4-0 record-wise, but they are also undefeated against the spread for just the third time in franchise history, which helps bring us to our conversation here today. Here, we'll be discussing all the betting angles for this game, including the spread, total and some of our favorite player props, along with a breakdown of the line movement throughout the week.
How to watch
Vikings at Seahawks (-7)
This line has overall been pretty stable. It opened at Seattle -7.5, dipped to Seattle -7 on Monday, and has held true throughout the week. If the Seahawks are able to cover in Week 5, they'll be just the sixth team since 2010 to start 5-0 ATS, a mark the club has yet to do in franchise history.
The pick: Seahawks -7. Russell Wilson looks like a man on a mission this season and has historically played the Vikings well. He's 5-0 SU and ATS against Minnesota in his career, and the Vikings secondary doesn't leave much to be desired. Through the first quarter of the season, they are allowing the second-most passing yards per attempt and the sixth-worst opponent passer rating. Meanwhile, Wilson has the Seahawks first in almost every passing category. As for Kirk Cousins, this isn't the most ideal spot for him. Since joining the Vikings in 2018, he's 5-11 ATS against teams with a winning record.
This total has gone for a bit of a ride this week. After opening at 57.5, it climbed to 58 and held there throughout the day on Monday. Tuesday is where the dip started as it went down a half-point and has continued to decrease all the way to 56.5 on the eve of this matchup.
The pick: Over 56.5. This contest will likely be a high-scoring affair. The Over has a combined record of 6-2 between Seattle and Minnesota this year. Both clubs have offenses that are capable of putting up points in a hurry, and each defense isn't exactly stout. While we highlighted Minnesota's secondary above, Football Outsiders has the Seahawks' pass defense efficiency ranked 29th in the NFL. Both quarterbacks should find plenty of opportunities to score, driving this total Over.
O/U 25.5 completions
O/U 37.5 pass attempts
O/U 315.5 passing yards
O/U 2.5 passing TDs (Under -160)
O/U 0.5 interceptions (Under -170)
O/U 23.5 rushing yards
I like Wilson's Over for passing touchdowns being +130. Outside of Week 4 against Miami where he threw for two scores, the Seahawks QB has thrown for at least four touchdowns in each game this year. With Minnesota's secondary allowing quarterbacks to have strong days, I expect another from Wilson. I also like the Over with his total passing yards this season as he's averaging 321.3 yards per game through the air this season.
O/U 22.5 completions
O/U 36.5 pass attempts
O/U 275.5 passing yards
O/U 1.5 passing TDs (Over -145)
O/U 0.5 interceptions (Over -150)
O/U 6.5 rushing yards
The Over for Cousins' passing touchdowns and rushing yards are the most appealing to me. With this game primed to be a high-scoring event, I expect him to have success finding his receivers for multiple touchdowns. He's done that twice already this year, and the only time he failed to find the end zone was against a top-ranked Colts unit in Week 2. Seattle isn't Indianapolis when it comes to defenses. As for the rushing total, Cousins has the ability to run, already posting games where he's logged 34 and 14 yards on the ground.
Other props to consider
Justin Jefferson total receiving yards: Over 67.5 (-115). Don't look now, but the rookie receiver is white-hot, with back-to-back games with over 100 yards receiving. Kirk Cousins is starting to look his way more often, and I expect another big outing from him in Week 5. I also don't hate throwing something on him scoring a touchdown in this game at +138.
DK Metcalf total receiving yards: Over 68.5 (-115). We all know Metcalf can rip this number off on a single reception. He's gone over this total in every game he's played this season and there no reason for him to not go over once again.
Chris Carson total rushing yards: Over 65.5 (-115). Through the first quarter of the season, Minnesota ranks just 24th in defensive efficiency against the run. Not only will he have a choice matchup, but he'll get plenty of volume in the Seattle offense.
Chris Carson to score two or more touchdowns (+333). Little bit of a lottery ticket here, but Carson has already logged two multi-touchdown games and has done so in a variety of ways. In Week 1, he found the end zone twice as a pass-catcher, and just last week he did it twice with his feet. This seems like a solid spot for him to find paydirt a number of times again.
Adam Thielen total receptions: Over 5.5 (+120). While Justin Jefferson could put a dent into his targets, Thielen is still seeing the ball thrown his way an average of 7.8 times per game, including 10 targets last week in Houston. If you believe this game is going to be pass-heavy on both sides, you'd be silly not to take the Over with Thielen, who is still the primary weapon for Cousins in the passing attack.