When it comes to gambling on football, there aren't too many locks out there. However, one of the closest things in the NFL seems to be whenever Andrew Luck suits up against an AFC South opponent.
In just a few short hours on the board, the Colts-Jaguars game this week has seen some of the wildest early movements of Week 4. The Jaguars opened as a two-point favorite, however, that was quickly bet down and before we reached midnight on Sunday, the line had swung in favor of the Colts (-2).
The game on Sunday will be played in London, and will mark the first time in franchise history that Indy has made the trip to England for a game (this will be the Jaguars' fourth trip). Although the long trip can throw some teams off, early bettors don't seem phased by the thought of Luck losing to the Jaguars, a team he has a 5-1 career record against.
Three other other early lines to watch: Redskins-Browns, Patriots-Bills and Seahawks-Jets.
In those last two games, quarterback injuries could play a huge part in how the line moves this week. As of Sunday night, the Patriots have no idea who there quarterback will be against the Bills. On the Seahawks end, there's no guarantee that Russell Wilson will be able to play through the sprained knee he suffered against the 49ers on Sunday.
As for the Redskins-Browns line, it's already moved three points in Washington's favor, which means if you like the Redskins, you better pounce soon this week.
Let's take a look at the early Week 4 odds.
NFL Week 4 Odds
Dolphins at Bengals (Opening line: Bengals, -7 points)
Current line: Bengals (-7 points). There's a reason the Bengals have a reputation for falling flat on their face in primetime and that's because they usually fall flat on their face in primetime. Since the beginning of 2014, the Bengals are 2-6 in primetime games, and 4-10 overall during Andy Dalton's career under the lights, which doesn't exactly bode well for Thursday night's game. The Bengals haven't beaten the Dolphins since 2007 (0-3) and haven't beaten the Dolphins in Cincinnati since 2004. If you need a reason to take the Bengals, Cincy is an AFC-best 9-2-1 ATS against non-divisional opponents since the beginning of 2015.
Colts vs. Jaguars in London (Opening line: Jaguars, -2.5 points)
Current line: Colts, (-2 points). With a 4.5 point swing, this line took one of the biggest early jumps of Week 4 and that's probably because bettors are pretty confident when it comes to putting money on Andrew Luck to beat a divisional opponent. Since his rookie year in 2012, Luck is 17-2 straight-up against the AFC South, and 19-20 against everyone else. Overall, the Colts are an NFL-best 17-6-1 ATS against divisional opponents since 2012. The wild card here is that the Colts are playing their first game ever in London. For the Jaguars, this will be their fourth trip since 2013. It's also worth noting that the Jags did put up 51 points on the Colts last season.
Titans at Texans (Opening line: Texans, -4.5 points)
Current line: Texans, -6.5 points. This is another AFC South rivalry that has been lopsided over the past few years. Since 2012, the Texans are 7-1 straight-up against the Titans, with six of those seven wins coming by 14 or more points. Since 2014, the Texans are an NFL-best 8-3-1 ATS against divisional opponents. In that same span, the Texans are 9-5 ATS coming off a loss, which ranks second-best in the AFC. A mad Texans team coming off an embarrassing loss and a 10-day break probably isn't a good thing for the Titans.
Browns at Redskins (Opening line: Redskins, -6.5 points)
Current line: Redskins (-9.5 points). Although the Browns have been an ugly 10-22 over the past two seasons, they haven't been that bad against NFC teams, going 4-4 straight-up. Bettors are pounding the Redskins though, and that's probably because the Browns will either be starting their third-string quarterback (Cody Kessler) or a gimpy Josh McCown. That being said, Washington hasn't been a safe bet lately against AFC teams. Since the beginning of 2014, the Redskins are 2-7 ATS against AFC teams, which is the worst record in the NFC and second-worst record in the NFL. Of course, the Browns are never a safe bet and they haven't won in Washington since 1991.
Seahawks at Jets (Opening line: Seahawks, -3.5).
Current line: Seahawks (-1.5). As soon as this line was released, everyone jumped on the Jets and that's because the health of Russell Wilson is up in the air. Wilson sprained his knee on Sunday, and it's not yet clear if he's definitely going to play against the Jets this week. Even if Wilson does play, the Seahawks offense could have trouble moving the ball if he's banged up. In Week 2, a banged up Wilson and the Seahawks lost to the Rams despite being a 6.5 point favorite. Look for this line to make a big move if Wilson is ruled out because that would mean that rookie Trevone Boykin would have to make the first start of his career in a place where the Seahawks haven't won since 1983. If Wilson does start and he's healthy, he'll likely do well: The QB is 11-5 against AFC teams since 2012.
Bills at Patriots (Opening line: Patriots, -3.5).
Current line: Patriots (-4). Rex Ryan has basically reached rock bottom with this line: The Bills are underdogs despite the fact that the Patriots have no clue who their starting QB will be because they have zero healthy quarterbacks on their roster. Of course, the lack of quarterbacks really doesn't matter when you give Bill Belichick 10-days to prepare for a team because that means he's probably going to out-coach you no matter what. Since 2012, New England is 5-0 coming off a Thursday game, winning those games by an average of 16 points. Oh, and the Bills are 1-14 in their last 15 trips to Gillette Stadium.
Panthers at Falcons (Opening line: Falcons, -3).
Current line: Panthers, (-3). Although Carolina's been dominating the NFC South over the past few years, they've had some serious trouble with the Falcons. Since 2014, the two teams are 2-2 against each other, and that total includes an Atlanta win from last year that ended up being the only blemish on the Panthers' 15-1 regular season. Since Cam Newton's rookie year in 2011, the Panthers are 2-3 straight-up in Atlanta.
Raiders at Ravens (Opening line: Ravens, -3.5 points).
Current line: Ravens, (-3.5 points). For the past seven years, the Raiders haven't been able to figure how to win in the Eastern Time Zone. Since 2009, Oakland is 1-18 straight-up when playing a game on Eastern Time, which means this could be the beginning of a rough stretch for the Raiders. Between now and Halloween, they play three games in Eastern time, including this week's game in Baltimore. Just because they might not win doesn't mean they can't cover though. Since 2014, the Raiders are 15-10 ATS against AFC teams, a number that ranks No. 1 in the conference. On the other hand, the Ravens are at the other end of the spectrum with the third-worst ATS record against AFC teams over the past two years (11-16-2)
Lions at Bears (Opening line: Lions, -1 point).
Current line: Lions, (-2 points). The Bears are arguably the worst team in the NFL, so it wouldn't be surprising at all to see this line move in the favor of the Lions as the week goes on. Not only have the Lions owned the Bears lately -- 6-0 straight-up since the beginning of the 2013 season -- but the Bears could be without starting quarterback Jay Cutler. Not to mention, the Bears have been abysmal at home lately. Since the beginning of the 2015 season, the Bears are 1-8 straight-up at home and 2-7 ATS. That ATS number is the second worst record in the NFL that timespan.
Broncos at Buccaneers (Opening line: Broncos, -4 points)
Current line: Broncos, (-3 points). If the Buccaneers could dump AFC teams from their schedule, they probably would. Since 2014, the Bucs are just 2-6 against the AFC, although they do have a slightly better 4-4 record ATS. As for the Broncos, they would never drop NFC teams from their schedule. Since 2013, Denver is 10-2 straight-up against the NFC during the regular season. If Trevor Siemian plays as well in Tampa as he did in Cincinnati, then the Bucs could be in trouble on Sunday.
Rams at Cardinals (Opening line: Cardinals, -8 points)
Current line: Cardinals, (-9 points). Since Bruce Arians arrived in Arizona in 2013, the Cardinals are 4-2 against the Rams straight-up with those four wins coming by an average of 16.75 points. The problem when betting this game is that the Rams are regularly the giant wrench that's thrown into the NFC West standings. Despite the fact that the Rams haven't had a winning record since 2003, they do regularly have a winning record in their division. Since the beginning of 2015, the Rams are 5-3 straight-up and 5-3 ATS against NFC West teams.
Saints at Chargers (Opening line: Chargers, -4 points)
Current line: Chargers, (-4 points). If there's one thing the Chargers do well, it's playing at home early in the season. Since 2010, the Chargers are 12-2 straight-up at home during the first four weeks of the regular season and 10-4 ATS. The Chargers have also done pretty well against NFC teams, going 8-4 ATS since 2013. Of course, maybe we should ignore that because there's also the chance that this could turn into a giant Drew Brees revenge game. This week will mark the first time Brees has played a game in San Diego since the Chargers parted ways with him in 2005. If you're wondering how Brees has gone 11 years without playing in San Diego, well, the Saints were scheduled to play there in 2008, but that game got moved to London.
Cowboys at 49ers (Opening line: Pick'em)
Current line: Cowboys, (-2.5 points). Although the 49ers have been pretty horrible since 2015, they've actually done pretty well ATS in home games. Since the start of last season, San Francisco is 6-3 ATS at home, which is the fourth best mark in the NFL in that timespan. This week's game will mark only the third time since 1998 that the Cowboys have traveled to San Francisco. The last time the Cowboys lost on the road to the 49ers, Dak Prescott was only 4 years old.
Chiefs at Steelers (Opening line: Steelers, -4 points)
Current line: Steelers, (-5.5 points). If you want to bet on any team coming off a loss, you should probably go with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since the beginning of the 2014 season, the Steelers are 8-3 ATS coming off a loss. I'm not sure what their record is when Le'Veon Bell is returning from a suspension, but that's also happening this Sunday. Ben Roethlisberger has probably had this week marked on his calendar all year. Bell is eligible to play this week after sitting out the first three games due to suspension.
Giants at Vikings (Opening line: Vikings, -3.5 points).
Current line: Vikings, (-4 points). The Vikings seems to lose a key player every week, and yet somehow, they keep on winning. Due to their injuries, it's been tough to put a value on the Vikings, which has worked out well for anyone betting on them. Through the first three weeks of the season, the Vikings are one of just four teams -- along with Denver, Philly and New England -- that are undefeated ATS. Ironically, all three teams are getting low numbers this week: The Patriots, Vikings and Broncos are all favored by four or less points right now.
BYES: Green Bay, Philadelphia.
