The No. 4 seed Baylor Bears will try to avenge two regular-season losses when they face the No. 5 seed Iowa State Cyclones on Thursday afternoon in the 2023 Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals. Baylor lost both meetings to Iowa State this season, including a 73-58 setback last Saturday. The winner of this matchup will face the winner of top-seeded Kansas and No. 8 seed West Virginia in the semifinals on Friday.
Tipoff is set for 12:30 p.m. ET. The Bears are favored by 4.5 points in the latest Baylor vs. Iowa State odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over/under is set at 134. Before entering any Iowa State vs. Baylor picks, you'll want to see the college basketball predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters conference tournament week at 76-51 on all top-rated college basketball picks this season, returning nearly $1,200 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Baylor vs. Iowa State. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds for Baylor vs. Iowa State:
- Baylor vs. Iowa State spread: Baylor -4.5
- Baylor vs. Iowa State over/under: 134 points
- Baylor vs. Iowa State money line: Baylor -190, Iowa State +158
- Baylor vs. Iowa State picks: See picks here
Why Baylor can cover
Iowa State picked up the win on Saturday, but the Cyclones had lost their four previous games and eight of their last 10. Baylor now has some work to do this weekend if it wants to secure a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament when the bracket is revealed Sunday night. The Bears had recorded consecutive wins against then-No. 8 Texas and Oklahoma State before falling to the Cyclones to close the regular season.
Freshman guard Keyonte George leads Baylor with 16.0 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game, finishing exactly on his season average in the first meeting between these teams. Baylor also has a pair of experienced guards in Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer, who are combining for more than 30 points per game. The Bears have covered the spread in six of their last nine games, while Iowa State has only covered once in its last five contests.
Why Iowa State can cover
Baylor might be considered the better overall team, but Iowa State dominated both regular-season matchups. The Cyclones cruised to a 77-62 win at home on Dec. 31, holding Baylor to 37.7% from the floor. They completed the season sweep with a 73-58 win on Saturday, ending a nine-game losing streak in Waco and strengthening their NCAA Tournament resume.
The Bears shot 35.8% from the field in the rematch, matching their season low for points and getting outrebounded by 12. Iowa State scored 23 points off Baylor turnovers and led by as many as 18 points with less than six minutes remaining. Senior guard Jaren Holmes leads Iowa State with 13.2 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists, while senior guard Gabe Kalscheur is adding 12.7 points and 2.4 rebounds.
How to make Iowa State vs. Baylor picks
The model has simulated Baylor vs. Iowa State 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over on the total, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Iowa State vs. Baylor? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is 76-51 on its top-rated college basketball picks this season, and find out.
