The 24th-ranked Michigan State Spartans are looking for a spark, and a home victory against the No. 7 Purdue Boilermakers on Saturday would certainly provide it. Of course, it will be far from easy, as Purdue (24-4, 15-1) sits atop the Big Ten standings and has won nine of its past 10 games. The Spartans (18-9, 9-7) have lost five of six but will have the home-court advantage at Breslin Center, where they are 10-3 this season. Purdue has won four straight in the series but Michigan State has won 25 of 41 all-time meetings with the Boilermakers. Purdue will be rested after cruising past Rutgers 84-72 last Sunday, while the Spartans were routed 86-60 by Iowa on Tuesday night.
Tipoff is set for noon ET in East Lansing, Mich. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Boilermakers as five-point favorites in its latest Purdue vs. Michigan State odds, up two points from the opening line. The over-under for total points scored is 146.5. Before making any Michigan State vs. Purdue picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Purdue vs. Michigan State, and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball odds and betting lines for Michigan State vs. Purdue.
- Purdue vs. Michigan State spread: Boilermakers -5
- Purdue vs. Michigan State over-under: 146.5 points
- Purdue vs. Michigan State money line: Boilermakers -220, Spartans +180
- PUR: It is 10-5 ATS the past two seasons with the rest advantage.
- MSY: It is 9-9 ATS over the past two seasons vs. ranked opponents.
Why Purdue can cover
Purdue has an inside/outside game few teams can match, and it has been one of the best teams in the nation. It hit a huge speed bump in an 82-58 loss to Michigan on Feb. 10, but its other three losses were by five points or fewer. The Boilermakers lead the Big Ten in 3-point shooting (38.7 percent), field-goal percentage (48.2) and rebounding margin (9.7 per game). They also lead the conference and rank sixth in the nation in scoring at 82.2 points per game. They have won three of the past four meetings with Michigan State by at least 10 points.
Playmaker Jaden Ivey (team-high 17.3 points per game) and sharpshooter Sasha Stefanovic (40.6 percent on 3-pointers) help lead the offense. But big men Zach Edey and Trevion Williams also play massive roles. The 7-foot-4 Edey leads the Big Ten in field-goal percentage (68.2), and he and Williams combine for 26.5 points, 15.1 rebounds and almost two blocks per game. Ivey showed off his scoring ability with 25 points in Sunday's victory, while Edey had 15 points and seven rebounds. Stefanovic averages 11.6 points and a team-high 3.4 assists.
Why Michigan State can cover
Michigan State has had recent troubles, but it is a strong shooting team and is 5-3 ATS after a loss. It beat Penn State and lost two games by a combined nine points before the blowout loss to Iowa. That should stir up the Spartans, and they are the second-best 3-point shooting team in the Big Ten (behind Purdue). Boilermakers opponents are shooting almost 34 percent from 3-point range (209th in Division I). Gabe Brown has hit 35.1 percent on 148 3-point attempts, and forward Malik Hall has been sharp on his 53 tries, hitting 27 (50.9 percent).
Brown leads the team in scoring at just 11.4 points per game, but six others average more than 18 minutes and 6.5 points. Forwards Marcus Bingham Jr. and Hall combine for more than 19 points and 11 rebounds, and Bingham averages 2.3 blocks per game, third-most in the conference. The 7-footer should challenge Edey and Williams in the middle, and the Spartans can make things tough on shooters. They are second in the conference in both 3-point defense (30.7 percent) and field-goal percentage defense (40.6) and average 5.4 blocks and almost six steals.
How to make Michigan State vs. Purdue picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting 145 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Purdue vs. Michigan State? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $2,000 on its college basketball picks the last five-plus years, and find out.
