The 2018 Music City Bowl features one of the best quarterback duels of bowl season as the Auburn Tigers take on the Purdue Boilermakers on Friday. Kickoff is set for 1:30 p.m. ET from Nissan Stadium in Nashville. Auburn's strong-armed Jarrett Stidham is widely considered a top-five quarterback prospect in next year's NFL Draft. Purdue's David Blough split time much of his career, but has landed on the radar of draft scouts with a standout season in which he's completed 67 percent of his passes and thrown for 3,521 yards. The Tigers are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Purdue vs. Auburn odds, down from an opener of -5. The over-under for total points scored opened at 54.5, but has risen to 57.5 ahead of kickoff. Before locking in your Auburn vs. Purdue picks and Music City Bowl predictions, check out what SportsLine senior analyst Josh Nagel has to say.
A Nevada-based expert with more than 20 years of experience in the sports wagering industry, Nagel specializes in handicapping college athletics. He has had another strong year, hitting 61 percent of his spread selections for SportsLine members. He heads into bowl season on a 20-6 run on against the spread picks. What's more, he has had a keen eye for the tendencies of these programs and boasts an eye-popping record of 9-1 on against the spread picks involving Purdue or Auburn. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
In Week 10, Nagel advised SportsLine members that Purdue (-10.5) was due for a letdown spot when it visited Minnesota coming off a last-minute win against Iowa. He recommended a strong play on the Golden Gophers, and they dominated from the outset in a 41-10 outright victory.
Now, Nagel has studied the latest 2018 Music City Bowl odds and locked in another strong spread pick. You can only see it at SportsLine.
Nagel knows Purdue started the season with three straight home defeats by eight combined points. The Boilermakers then started a four-game win streak with an upset of Boston College as a touchdown underdog. But their signature moment came when they smashed Ohio State 49-20 as a two-touchdown underdog. The loss ultimately cost the Buckeyes a spot in the four-team College Football Playoff.
Purdue (6-6) stumbled down the stretch with losses in three of its last five, but beat rival Indiana in the regular-season finale to earn a bowl bid.
But just because Purdue whipped Ohio State doesn't mean it will cover the 2018 Music City Bowl spread.
Nagel also knows that Stidham is a former five-star prospect who was widely believed to be the player Auburn needed in order to contend for a national title. He hasn't lived up to those lofty expectations, but the strong-armed Baylor transfer has still provided stability and solid production at the position for the last two seasons.
Stidham is still considered a strong NFL prospect. But seeing his stock drop a bit has likely helped the Tigers because Stidham will play in the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl 2018 instead of sitting out in preparation for the draft. The 6-foot-3, 215-pound junior has thrown for 5,579 yards with 31 touchdowns against 11 interceptions in his Auburn career.
We can tell you Nagel is leaning toward the over, but his much stronger play is on the spread. He has dissected this matchup and unearthed a critical factor that causes one side of the spread to hit hard. He's only sharing what it is and who to back at SportsLine.
Who wins Purdue vs. Auburn? And what critical factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side you need to jump all over in the Music City Bowl, all from the senior analyst who's hitting 90 percent of his picks involving these teams, and find out.
