There is finally a significant change to this season's bowl projections, and it has nothing to do with a team losing. Oregon, a 49-13 winner at Arizona State, replaces Texas as the No. 4 team in the College Football Playoff. The Ducks are now projected to be Georgia's opponent in the Sugar Bowl semifinal after beating Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
Three weeks into the CFP Rankings, it is apparent that there is nothing Texas can do to give the committee a reason to jump them over Oregon if the Ducks win out. Texas' win at Alabama is not carrying enough weight to hold off Oregon, even if the Longhorns run through the remainder of their schedule as well.
Texas is now projected to the Fiesta Bowl to face Tulane. Washington moves to the Cotton Bowl for a matchup with Alabama. Both face unranked conference opponents in Rivalry Week they should blow through those respective matchups.
For the second straight week, a CFP contender lost a key player. Last week, Texas saw running back Jonathan Brooks -- the nation's seventh-leading rusher -- sidelined for the season. This week, Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis was carted off the field with a leg injury in the first quarter of a win over North Alabama. With Travis now lost for the season, redshirt junior Tate Rodemaker will continue as FSU's starter after leading the Seminoles to a 58-13 victory.
It was probably good to him a game like this to ease into the job. Florida State visits rival Florida next week. Coincidentally, the Gators lost starting QB Graham Mertz, likely for the rest of the season, with a broken collarbone suffered in their excruciating loss at top-10 Missouri. Max Brown will step in for Mertz next Saturday night in The Swamp.
The CFP Selection Committee will not take Travis' injury into consideration yet as they deliberate this week's rankings. The voters do not try to project how a team will play without a key player when there is an injury like this. Rather, they will wait to let the results speak for themselves.
Michigan got its toughest test of the season in a 31-24 win at Maryland. The Wolverines had not given up more than 15 points in a game prior to Saturday and had not won by fewer than nine points. Both of those benchmarks came in Michigan's 24-15 win at Penn State last week.
The Big Ten East division will be decided when Ohio State visits Ann Arbor, Michigan, this Saturday. The Buckeyes had no trouble with Minnesota in a 37-3 win.
College Football Playoff
| Date | Game / Loc. | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 8 | National Championship | Title game | Semifinal winners |
| Jan. 1 | Sugar Bowl New Orleans | Semifinal | (1) Georgia vs. (4) Oregon |
Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl | Semifinal | (2) Michigan vs. (3) Florida State |
New Year's Six bowl games
| Date | Bowl / Location | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 1 | Fiesta Bowl | at-large vs. at-large | Texas vs. Tulane |
Dec. 30 | Orange Bowl | ACC vs. SEC/B1G/ND | Louisville vs. Ohio State |
Dec. 30 | Peach Bowl | at-large vs. at-large | Missouri vs. Penn State |
Dec. 29 | Cotton Bowl | at-large vs. at-large | Alabama vs. Washington |
There are currently 67 bowl eligible teams. That means we need 15 more to become eligible this week. I do not expect that to happen, but you never know.
James Madison's waiver request to be eligible for the postseason was denied this week, so the Dukes, which suffered their first loss Saturday, will have to wait and see if there are any openings due to a lack of eligible teams. They will be first in line to fill a spot. Jacksonville State would be second in line before we get to teams that finish 5-7. This week's projection only has one projected 5-7 team in a bowl game: Mississippi State.
Don't see your team? Check out Jerry Palm's bowl projections after Week 12. And be sure to check out our rolling bowl eligibility tracker for the 2023-24 qualifiers.
