2017 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Which elder running backs will crush your Fantasy teams?
Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson and LeSean McCoy are big name running backs, but Dave Richard cautions that their histories could lead to some big headaches in 2017.
You sure you want to draft these guys?
We've studied the parameters of when running backs break down for 10 years, but it's pretty straightforward. It's about the number of touches and wear-and-tear, not the age of the player. We take the total number of career carries a running back has, including the postseason. Then take the total number of receptions a running back has, including the postseason, but divide that number by three since plenty of catches by a running back end without contact. Add those numbers together (don't worry, I've done the math already) and you'll get a unique number that might as well act as a running back's odometer.
I've deemed the final tally the Total Evaluation Number, or TEN. And when a running back's TEN hits 2,100, it's time to be worried. Call that the ... dramatic pause ... Danger Zone!
But McCoy is right up against it. We might be on the cusp of McCoy's last good year (or even worse, last good half-year).
|Running back||Career carries||Career rec.||TEN||Major injury||Week 1 age|
|LeGarrette Blount||1,279||47||1,295|| ||30|
|Jamaal Charles||1,344||286||1,439|| ||30|
|Matt Forte||2,295||530||2,472|| ||31|
|Frank Gore||3,105||432||3,249|| ||34|
|Tim Hightower||800||172||857|| ||31|
|Marshawn Lynch||2,337||264||2,425|| ||31|
|Ryan Mathews||1,202||181||1,262|| ||30|
|LeSean McCoy||1,936||391||2,066|| ||29|
|Darren McFadden||1,301||254||1,386|| ||30|
|DeMarco Murray||1,464||272||1,555|| ||29|
|Adrian Peterson||2,534||247||2,616|| ||32|
|Darren Sproles||731||569||921|| ||34|
|Jonathan Stewart||1,591||163||1,645|| ||30|
|Danny Woodhead||562||285||657|| ||32|
Let's be honest, Gore has made us look silly since he had a TEN of over 2,100 since 2013. Peterson also put up some amazing stats once he crossed over the 2,100 mark. Forte had some great games last year before taking a nosedive. As for Lynch ... well, so far Lynch has made the analysis look good because he went rotten in 2015 once his TEN topped 2,100.
There will always be exceptions when it comes to data studies and Fantasy Football -- we're studying humans, not robots. The very best running backs in NFL history tend to prove mathematical jibberish wrong. It's safe to say Gore and Peterson have qualified as special players. It doesn't mean they'll stay that way.
Rushers in the Danger Zone
Problems: Exceptionally overdue for breakdown ... Rushing average has sagged the past two seasons (3.8) ... Fantasy value salvaged by receiving stats in 2016.
Can he overcome? Every year we doubt Gore and every year he makes us look bad. He's been a lead back for 11 straight seasons and has remained above 15 carries per game his entire career. At some point it's going to come crashing down. Been saying it for years, but we're getting closer and closer to that point.
Feel-good draft spot: Round 7
Problems: No longer Superman after MCL tear and 1.9 rushing average in Minnesota last year ... Barely played two of the past three seasons, albeit for very different reasons ... New team is pass-happy, unlikely to give him workload similar to old team.
Can he overcome? Sure, because we've seen Peterson bounce back before. But the Saints aren't a run-first team and Mark Ingram is still in the driver's seat at running back. Can we count on Peterson to stay healthy if he's getting 10 touches per game? Probably, but that would mean he'd become a touchdown-or-bust running back with such a limited a workload.
Feel-good draft spot: Round 8 or 9
Problems: Minor injuries over the past two seasons ...Declining rush average (3.7 last year) ... Expected to lose playing time to Bilal Powell ... Jets aren't expected to be very competitive.
Can he overcome? With a worse O-line and fewer touches in his lap, Forte could really hurt Fantasy owners. The difference this year than last year is that more people are expecting a disappointing season. That's why you'll see him get taken late in drafts.
Feel-good draft spot: Round 9
Problems: Didn't play last year, was depressing to watch the year before ... Shares the backfield with two young, fast runners who are sure to take touches.
Can he overcome? The O-line and passing game in Oakland are top notch, so there's a chance for Lynch to shine because defenses can't key on him. But the Raiders were judicious with Latavius Murray's carries last season (six games with 15-plus carries), and he's not nearly as aged as Lynch. Expecting a robust amount of touchdowns is fair, but expecting 1,000 rush yards is not.
Feel-good draft spot: Round 5
Will enter the Danger Zone in 2017
Problems: Has missed at least one game each of the past two years ... Has fallen under 290 total touches each of the past two years ... uhh, we're kinda reaching for negatives on Shady.
Can he overcome? What's to overcome?! The Bills' switch to a West Coast scheme won't hurt him at all, the O-line is good and typically running backs who work with running quarterbacks have added success. Plus, McCoy's extremely talented. The only thing we have to realize is that he's getting older and a breakdown will come eventually.
Feel-good draft spot: Between 7th and 12th overall
Others not in the Danger Zone
Problems: New additions, changing offense figure to hurt Stewart's potential ... Has played 13 or fewer games in each of the last five seasons ... Rushing average dipped to 3.8 yards per carry last year ... Won't catch many passes.
Can he overcome? If he does, he'll have to stay healthy, break some long runs and score a ton of touchdowns. Considering the revolving door the Panthers figure to have in their backfield, it's a lot to ask for, especially from a guy who doesn't catch much.
Feel-good draft spot: Round 9
Problems: Starting to creep into breakdown territory ... Has a behemoth backup who could begin taking touches from him as soon as Week 1 ... Coming off his second-best season that included career-high three receiving touchdowns.
Can he overcome? We know Murray is the Titans' starter and will lead the team in touches. He seems to have at least one more year before we sweat him breaking down. However, the Titans might decide that using Derrick Henry more will save Murray from getting hurt. It's a factor, but not a large enough deterrent.
Feel-good draft spot: Round 2
Problems: Is he the same player he once was? ... Multiple knee surgeries over the past three years is a gigantic issue ... Broncos are going to split reps ... In eight games over two years, Charles has topped 100 rush yards once and 100 total yards two other times.
Can he overcome? First, he has to stay healthy. Then, he has to prove he still has his trademark cutting ability and speed. After that he'll need to earn more than just a complementary role behind C.J. Anderson. Could he possibly be a regular at the goal line? It seems like a lot to expect.
Feel-good draft spot: Round 10
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