Talking Dynasty in January or February always comes with a couple of caveats.
- Depending on what happens in free agency
- Depending on what happens in the draft
That is even more true at running back and especially this season. When you're looking at the tiers below, Leonard Fournette is the only running back in the first five tiers who face uncertainty in 2022. But just about everyone after him does.
For some, like Fournette, Chase Edmonds, Rashaad Penny, James Conner, and Melvin Gordon it's about where they will play in 2022. For others, like Devin Singletary and Miles Sanders, it's more about who will be joining them and how much they'll be sharing.
The one thing we can be certain about is that there are more running backs than there are starting jobs. And there are even more coming in the NFL Draft. So I think it makes sense that for most of the free agents, it's better that they stay where they are.
Fournette, for instance, may be a top-12 redraft back next year if he re-signs in Tampa, which would bump him at least to the top of his tier, if not to a tier above. Edmonds and Conner could both see big leaps if they stay in Arizona and the other leaves. Penny especially seems to have a great fit in Seattle now that he's healthy.
This uncertainty may seem like a red flag to stay away from these backs, but that's entirely cost dependent. Most of them are approaching the age where they get discounted and the uncertainty should only further that discount. If that's the case, there's more upside than downside and as a contender, I will try to ship some mid-round rookie picks to see if I can acquire them.
Just don't give up anything you'll be too sad to lose. Because as we saw last offseason, there will be a few running backs who lose this game of musical chairs. And at the age most of these guys are at, that would completely destroy whatever Dynasty value they have left.
Here are my updated Dynasty running back tiers: