Well, this is going to be awkward.
On Thursday morning I posted a Twitter poll asking people to choose between Trey Lance and Jalen Hurts. Unsurprisingly, 79% of the first 3,500 votes went to Lance. Even less surprisingly, many wanted me to know what an idiot I was for even asking. Apparently, there was no logical room for dissent. Unfortunately for me, I asked the question because I have Lance and Hurts back-to-back. I figured I owe it to you guys to make my best case for why in this space.
First, let me clarify, I'd only make this argument in a one-quarterback league. Because in a one-quarterback league I don't believe floor matters all that much, and the one major edge Lance has over Hurts is the floor of being the No. 3 overall pick. Hurts could reasonably be replaced after this year. That's not a reasonable concern with Lance. He'll get at least two or three seasons to prove his worth as a starter.
But forgetting floor for a moment, the upside of Lance and Hurts is, in my opinion, very similar. Hurts showed us top-five upside last year in his three complete games and now he's added DeVonta Smith, and he'll have a better offensive line. Lance, once he becomes the starter, will probably have better coaching and better weapons, but it could also be 2022 before he becomes the starter. And it's very tough to gauge Lance's true upside because of how little we've seen him play football.
Lance certainly has better pedigree, and that matters, but he is also one of the most unique top-three picks I can recall. He started 17 games over three seasons at North Dakota State. In contrast, Hurts threw for more than 9,000 yards, ran for more than 3,000 yards, and accounted for 124 total touchdowns at Alabama and Oklahoma. That's not enough to make up for their draft pedigree disparity, but it does close the gap for me.
Now, again, the best argument for Lance being the clear answer is that his team just took him No. 3 overall whereas Hurts' coaching staff just inherited him as a former second-round pick. And I'm sympathetic to that, it would even be enough to convince me in any league where I could start more than one quarterback. But in a one-quarterback league, Hurts is a consensus starter this year, while Lance is the No. 2 on his own team. While Hurts is far more likely to get replaced in the next year he's also far more likely to give you a top-five season this year. And in a one-quarterback league, I care about the latter more than the former.
I view the long-term upside of Hurts and Lance as a near wash, with a lot still unknown. The short-term upside clearly favors Hurts, in my opinion. So in a one-quarterback league, in a vacuum, I would take Hurts.
Does that mean you should too? Totally up to you. More than any other format, Dynasty is the one to get your guys, because you're going to hopefully have them on your team for a decade. I'm just here to offer you my point of view.
Here are my updated Dynasty quarterback rankings:
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.
