Fantasy Football: 2019 win percentage analysis shows Lamar Jackson, Ryan Tannehill lead top 20 QB finishers
Which quarterbacks led Fantasy teams to the highest winning percentage? Jamey Eisenberg analyzes the top 20 from 2019.
Lamar Jackson was great in reality, leading the Ravens to the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and he is expected to be the 2019 MVP. He also was amazing in Fantasy.
He was the No. 1 overall player and the top quarterback, scoring 472 total points in leagues with six points for passing touchdowns, and he averaged 31.5 Fantasy points per game. Not bad for a player with an Average Draft Position on CBS Sports in Round 9.
It's no surprise that Jackson also had the highest winning percentage among quarterbacks on CBS Sports leagues in 2019 at 0.608, and he had the third-highest win percentage overall behind Breshad Perriman (0.632) and Christian McCaffrey (0.626).
It might seem strange to see Perriman at No. 1 overall in win percentage, but that's what this breakdown is about. The data we're looking at here is how players impacted Fantasy leagues and not necessarily about individual performance.
It is based on the winning percentage for Fantasy managers of all players owned in 60 percent or more of leagues on CBS Sports, which came to about 150 players, and shows total wins and not Fantasy titles. Only commissioner leagues were considered with at least eight Fantasy teams or more.
Perriman was added late in the season to many successful rosters, so his win percentage is high. The same goes for Jackson, who was excellent all season.
We're going to break down each position all week, starting with quarterbacks, and Jackson is the leader of the pack.
Here are the top 20 quarterbacks based on win-percentage data for 2019:
1) Lamar Jackson, BAL - 0.608
2) Ryan Tannehill, TEN - 0.558
3) Dak Prescott, DAL - 0.530
4) Russell Wilson, SEA - 0.529
5) Jameis Winston, TB - 0.526
6) Deshaun Watson, HOU - 0.522
7) Carson Wentz, PHI - 0.506
8) Matt Ryan, ATL - 0.503
9) Drew Brees, NO - 0.502
10) Patrick Mahones, KC - 0.500
11) Josh Allen, BUF - 0.499
12) Kyler Murray, ARI - 0.495
13) Kirk Cousins, MIN - 0.493
14) Philip Rivers, LAC - 0.490
15) Jimmy Garoppolo, SF - 0.485
16) Aaron Rodgers, GB - 0.482
17) Jared Goff, LAR - 0.475
18) Jacoby Brissett, IND - 0.474
19) Tom Brady, NE - 0.470
20) Baker Mayfield, CLE - 0.468
Tannehill didn't take over as the starter in Tennessee until Week 7, but he was great once he did. He scored at least 21 Fantasy points in nine of 10 starts, including at least 28 points in all three games during the Fantasy playoffs. We'll see what happens with Tannehill in the playoffs, and he's a free agent this offseason. If he returns to the Titans as expected, he'll be a potential starting option in all leagues worth drafting with a late-round pick.
Prescott was the No. 2 quarterback for the season behind Jackson, and he was a star for most of the year. He scored at least 22 Fantasy points in eight of his first 10 games before hitting that mark just twice in the final six weeks, including Week 17. Like Tannehill, he's also a free agent this offseason, but he's not expected to leave Dallas. Let's see how Prescott does with new coach Mike McCarthy, but Prescott should still be fine. He's worth drafting as a top-10 quarterback in all leagues for 2020.
Wilson, Winston and Watson are No. 4-6 on this list, and they finished the season No. 3-5 in Fantasy points, with the order Wilson, Watson and Winston. Wilson and Watson were expected to play well in 2019, and they delivered, including with their win percentage. But Winston was a surprise. He was the No. 13 quarterback based on ADP, but he led the NFL in passing yards (5,109) and was second in passing touchdowns (30). Unfortunately, he was also first in interceptions (30), and we'll see what happens to him this offseason since he's a free agent. Most likely, he will stay in Tampa Bay, which is good for his Fantasy value, making him a top-10 quarterback on Draft Day.
Wentz was the No. 8 quarterback in total points, but he was No. 13 in Fantasy points per game at 19.9. But the way he finished the regular season helped his win percentage since he scored at least 20 Fantasy points in four of his final five games. He did that despite his receiving corps falling apart due to injuries to Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson and Nelson Agholor, and hopefully that position is addressed for the Eagles this offseason. Wentz has the potential to be a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in all leagues, and he's someone to target with a late-round pick.
Ryan started off the season scoring at least 22 Fantasy points in five of his first six games. He only scored 20 Fantasy points or more in three of his final eight outings, but Ryan should still be considered a low-end starting Fantasy quarterback heading into 2020. With Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and hopefully Austin Hooper (he's a free agent), you can argue that Ryan has the best receiving corps in the NFL.
Brees missed five games with a thumb injury, but he still finished as the No. 2 quarterback in Fantasy points per game at 24.9. I'm actually surprised his win percentage wasn't higher since he scored at least 27 Fantasy points in six of his final seven games. He also averaged 35.5 Fantasy points per game in his final four outings of the year. This will be an interesting offseason for Brees, who turns 41 and is a free agent. He'll likely return to New Orleans, which makes him a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in all leagues still, but his status is something to monitor over the next few months.
Mahomes was a bust this season because of where he was drafted (the No. 1 quarterback at No. 9 overall based on ADP) and where he finished, which was No. 6 at quarterback in total points and No. 7 in Fantasy points per game (23.4). It's not a surprise that his win percentage suffered, but there's clearly plenty of rebound potential for Mahomes in 2020. He's worth drafting as one of the top two quarterbacks along with Jackson, and it's doubtful he'll last past Round 3 in most formats.
The quarterbacks who finished at No. 11 and 12 on this list are likely going to be tied together for their Fantasy value heading into 2020. The reason is their ability to run. Murray (544) and Allen (510) were No. 2 and 3 in rushing yards in 2019 behind Jackson (1,206), and that makes them extremely attractive as Fantasy quarterbacks since both can also be successful passers. I like Murray slightly better than Allen, but I would draft either one as a top-10 quarterback in 2020.
Cousins, Rivers and Garoppolo all had some good moments as Fantasy quarterbacks in 2019, but none of them had sustained success. For Cousins, he had seven games with at least 21 Fantasy points, but none of them came in the Fantasy playoffs. Rivers only hit 20 Fantasy points or more in two of his final nine games, and he was largely a disaster all season. And Garoppolo only had five games all season with at least 20 Fantasy points, with only one in the final five weeks of the year. None of these quarterbacks will be considered starting options in 2020, and Rivers could either retire or leave the Chargers as a free agent.
Rodgers averaged 19.9 Fantasy points per game in 2019, which was the lowest average of his career as a full-time starter. We'll see how the playoffs end for him, but he might be done as a consistent No. 1 Fantasy quarterback under Matt LaFleur, especially if the Packers don't give him another receiver to help Davante Adams. As of now, I would only draft Rodgers as a low-end starter with a late-round pick, but that could change over the next few months.
Goff did a nice job to close the season with at least 21 Fantasy points in four of his final five games. But prior to that, he scored four Fantasy points or fewer in four of six games, which ruined his season. There's still a lot to like about his Fantasy value for 2020, especially if his weapons remain intact. But the Rams need to find a way to improve their offensive line, which might be difficult with a lack of assets in free agency and the draft. Goff will be a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback on Draft Day in most leagues.
Brissett was not a reliable Fantasy quarterback in 2019, and the Colts will try to replace him in 2020 if they can. He's not someone to trust as a Fantasy quarterback next season. The same could be said about Brady and Mayfield, who had high expectations from Fantasy managers in 2019 but faltered.
I thought Brady would do well with the addition of Antonio Brown prior to the start of the season, but Brown only played one game with the Patriots. Brady struggled with an inconsistent receiving corps, a suspect run game and one of the worst offensive lines of his career. He also missed Rob Gronkowski and looked his age (42), scoring more than 20 Fantasy points just seven times, including once in his final eight outings. He's a free agent this offseason and could retire, but even if he does return to New England, he won't be considered a starter in Fantasy on Draft Day in most leagues.
Mayfield was the biggest bust at quarterback in 2019 and one of the biggest disappointments at any position. Some of the quarterbacks with more Fantasy points per game than Mayfield included Daniel Jones, Gardner Minshew, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, Derek Carr and Sam Darnold. I hope the new coach in Cleveland can help Mayfield, as well as Odell Beckham (another bust), but Mayfield will enter 2020 as a No. 2 quarterback worth drafting with only a late-round pick.
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