Fantasy managers shouldn't be excited to draft Derek Carr outside of formats that can start two quarterbacks. He's fresh off his best Fantasy totals in four seasons and was even rated by Pro Football Focus as one of its most accurate deep-ball passers (20-plus yards) with a third-best 53.3% adjusted completion rate and 10 touchdowns. But he simply doesn't throw the ball enough to compete with others at the position. Changes to his offensive line and a tough schedule littered with challenging pass rushers won't make things easier. In typical Fantasy formats, Carr should go undrafted; in leagues that start two quarterbacks, Carr is a safe bet as a top-90 pick.
Carr may be facing a make-or-break season in 2021, with the Raiders likely to consider a change at quarterback if they miss the playoffs again, Tashan Reed and Vic Tafur of The Athletic reports. Rumors percolated this offseason regarding the Raiders' desire to seek a replacement under center, despite Carr's career highs for passing yards (4,103) and yards per attempt (7.9) in 2020. The team finished 10th in points scored and 30th in points allowed, so it was no surprise to see the front office ultimately make addressing the defense more of a priority. Carr is back as the starter, but he doesn't have any guarantees remaining on a contract that runs through 2022, and backup Marcus Mariota could eventually make starts if the Raiders are mediocre or subpar again.
The Raiders could field trade offers for Carr this offseason, Vincent Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports. Carr finished 2020 with career highs for passing yards (4,103), yards per attempt (7.94), passer rating (101.4) and QBR (71.0), leading an offense that ranked 10th in points per game (27.1) and tied for seventh in points per drive (2.5). He's undoubtedly a starting-caliber quarterback, but that won't necessarily stop the Raiders from pursuing an upgrade, which in this case might mean Deshaun Watson. Carr has a reasonable contract with $39.5 million (none guaranteed) due over the next two seasons, so trading him away could help the Raiders stockpile the necessary picks to make an enormous offer for Watson. Apart from the Texans' signal-caller, it isn't clear any of the available quarterback options this offseason would be an upgrade on Carr.
Carr completed 24 of 38 passes for 371 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions in Sunday's 32-31 win over the Broncos. The 29-year-old finished the season on a very impressive run, topping 300 yards in four of his last five starts (and not getting a chance to reach the mark in the fifth due to a second-quarter groin injury). Carr compiled his third consecutive 4,000-yard campaign as a result while setting a new career high with 4,103, and while the Raiders could get out of the final two seasons on his current contract fairly easily, his big final month makes it almost certain he'll be back under center for Las Vegas in 2021.
Carr completed 21 of 34 pass attempts for 336 yards, throwing one touchdown and no interceptions while adding a rushing score and minus-two yards on a pair of carries during Saturday's 26-25 loss to Miami. The three-time Pro Bowler fought through a groin injury sustained during last Thursday's overtime loss to the Chargers to remain without a missed start on the season. Carr helped lead the Raiders to a would-be game-winning field goal in the final 20 seconds of regulation Saturday by way of a seven-play, 71-yard drive. However, Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins were able to respond with a field goal-yielding possession of their own to secure the Week 16 win. Carr carries a 25:7 TD:INT into the Raiders' regular-season finale, with playoff ramifications excluded from a matchup against the Broncos given Las Vegas' latest loss.
Carr is expected to start at quarterback in Saturday's game against the Dolphins, Eddie Paskal of the Raiders' official site reports. Head coach Jon Gruden didn't confirm whether Carr or Marcus Mariota would start under center prior to the game. Carr led the team out of the tunnel following warmups, indicating that he'll start for the 15th time this year.
|WK||DATE||OPP||OPP RANK||OPP FPTS|
|4||10/04||@Los Angeles Chargers||25||22.63|
|9||11/07||@New York Giants||3||17.63|
|10||11/14||Kansas City Chiefs||18||21.26|
|13||12/05||Washington Football Team||6||17.88|
|14||12/12||@Kansas City Chiefs||18||21.26|
|18||01/09||Los Angeles Chargers||25||22.63|
Red Zone Trends
|3 Year Avg||68.8||4069||22||9||90||2||287|