MLB Picks
Today's Top Free Expert Picks
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Prop Bet Guy#1+1503(74%)25-9 in Last 34 MLB Player Props PicksWINPicked: Jul 4 @ 4:45pmCaesar’s. Sean Burke has cleared this strikeout line in seven straight outings. In the eight before, he was just 2/8, so I dug into what’s propelled the surge (+4.6% swinging strike rate) without a meaningful change in velocity, spin or pitch mix. What it seems to be is that Burke lowered his arm angle on his four-seamer, creating a tunneling effect with his breaking balls which are thrown at similar launch points. The result has his fastball, slider and knuckle curve’s whiff rates all ticked up. And I’m happy to test this theory against the Guardians who have the fourth highest called plus swinging strike rate over the last 30 days, and the fifth highest K% against righties over the same span (25%). -
Zack Cimini+232.5(57%)4-3 in Last 7 MLB Player Props PicksWINPicked: Jul 4 @ 2:27pmAnalysis
Texas even with all their injuries has mounted a nice stretch as they have won seven out of their last eight games. Evan Carter was a big spark in Thursday’s win over Detroit, as he had a hit in his two pinch hit at bats including a home run. Jack Flaherty has pitched five innings or less in four straight starts, and struggled against the Rangers on May 1st. In that start he went 3 2/3 innings and gave up four runs. Take Carter to clear his combination line once again against the Tigers. -
Prop Bet Guy#1+1503(74%)25-9 in Last 34 MLB Player Props PicksWINPicked: Jul 4 @ 12:38pmAnalysis
FanDuel (-125). Zebby Matthews has cleared this line in 6/9 starts this season. He’s actually made some tweaks with his arm angle and arsenal this season that have helped him with his command but lowered his whiff rate. The result has allowed him to stay in games longer, which in turn has kept his overall strikeouts up. He’s also been afforded a very long leash from the struggling Twins. Facing a Yankees lineup that’s struck out at a 28% rate over the last two weeks - Matthews pump-the-zone style should bode well against the Bombers, who have the second highest CSW%. -
Prop Bet Guy#1+1503(74%)25-9 in Last 34 MLB Player Props PicksWINPicked: Jul 3 @ 11:39pmAnalysis
FanDuel. Will break my “no overnight” rule on this one, but it’s for a pre-noon game as is. And it’s a great spot for Braxton Ashcraft, who is over this line in 11/17 starts, including 25 over his last three. The Nationals are very left-handed heavy, with six likely in the lineup. Ashcraft sees his strikeout rate jump to 32% against southpaws, paired with a 29% whiff rate. Washington has been striking out a bunch as is, with a 25% rate over the last two weeks. Look for Ashcraft to capitalize. -
Angelo Magliocca+372(75%)12-4 in Last 16 MLB Player Props PicksWINPicked: Jul 4 @ 8:43amAnalysis
This Washington Nationals lineup doesn’t strike out a ton, with just a 21% rate over the last month against righties, but they feature a bunch of lefties. Braxton Ashcraft has been far more successful in terms of strikeouts when facing left-handed batters and we continue to get 5.5 as his strikeout line so I’ll take the over. His curveball plays to a near 45% whiff rate against lefties and many of these Nationals hitters have struggled with the curveball. 7,8,9 Ks ladder for 1u. -
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Angelo MaglioccaAmags12Extra Innings: Saturday MLB BettingJoin Amags as he shares his Saturday bets, answers your questions and get you set for a packed MLB slate!
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MLB Sports Betting Terms:
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With several games on the schedule almost every day during the season, including extensive day baseball slates on Wednesday and Sunday, MLB offers sports bettors the opportunity to take positions on baseball outcomes for a large part of the calendar from April through October. Here are some terms worth knowing if you want to become more familiar with MLB betting:
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Lines
The term “lines” refers to odds for bettable outcomes in MLB games, including money lines, run lines and totals. Betting on the money line involves taking one of the two sides to win the game regardless of the final score. The team that’s favored will return a lower potential profit than the underdog, with the odds offered by sportsbooks correlated to the projected likelihood of each side winning. Money lines listed as negative numbers indicate the size of a wager required to earn $100 in profit. Positive money lines show potential profit on a $100 bet. For example, a -250 favorite would require a $250 bet to have the opportunity to win $100, while a +250 underdog would pay $250 in profit for every $100 wagered if that side wins. Run lines, which are typically set at 1.5, result in adjusted payouts for each side under different win conditions. A favorite of 1.5 on the run line (listed as -1.5) requires the team to win by at least two runs in order to be marked as a winning wager, while an underdog of 1.5 on the run line (listed as +1.5) allows that side the opportunity to cash if the team wins the game or loses by just one run. Close matchups allow for much greater profit potential if bettors are willing to risk laying 1.5 runs, while backing the underdog in projected mismatches becomes more palatable on the run line.
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Totals
Totals wagering involves betting on how many runs will be scored in a game or in a portion of a game, such as the first five innings. Totals will be listed with a line and interested bettors choose whether the combined scoring output of both teams will be more (Over) or less (Under) than the line, with payouts listed on each side of the total. For example, a total of 8.5 with an Over of -105 and an Under of -115 would return $100 in profit on a $105 Over bet if the combined score of both teams is nine runs or more, while a $115 bet on the Under would return $100 in profit if the two teams combine for eight runs or fewer.
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Props
MLB props (or proposition bets) have become a major part of MLB betting, allowing bettors the opportunity to wager on outcomes outside the standard game result. These can include player props, game props and team props. Player props are a core component of MLB betting for a lot of people and play a big part in same-game parlays. Players on each team in a matchup have lines assigned to their statistical outcomes, which allows bettors to make wagers on whether those outputs will finish over or under the line. This could involve the number of hits, runs or walks a player accumulates in a game, or sometimes a combination of those stats like the popular market H+R+RBI (hits plus runs plus RBI). Bettors can also back batters to hit a home run, starting pitchers to record a certain number of outs, and many other options. Team props include team totals, which allow bettors to play over or under the scoring total of just one team in a particular game. Some markets can also involve the first team to score a certain number of runs, or which team will score first in the game. Game props involve betting on other outcomes not related to a specific player, such as whether there will be a run in the first inning of a particular game or whether a game will go to extra innings.
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Live betting
In addition to the action that comes before first pitch, sportsbooks also offer a way to bet during MLB games via live betting, adjusting the lines and odds in available markets to reflect the flow of the game, key injury or other factors. This allows bettors to react to changing information or evolving matchup advantages and place bets against the real-time odds offered by a sportsbook. Live betting can bring strategy into play by providing opportunities to back a trailing team that might have an increased chance of scoring the third time through the lineup against a starting pitcher or when facing a lower-rated or overworked bullpen. Certain at-bats with perceived matchup advantages or disadvantages are also a key component of MLB live betting. Hedging is also a strategy in live betting, giving interested bettors the chance to make a second bet opposite their position taken prior to first pitch at better odds. For example, if a pregame underdog bet at +1.5 on the run line takes an early lead, backing the pregame favorite with a +1.5 live run line bet gives the opportunity to win both bets if the final margin is one run.
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Futures betting
MLB futures betting involves making bets based around futures outcomes instead of those involving a specific game. These could involve betting on who will win the World Series, win each pennant or make the playoffs. Another popular futures market involves win totals, where bettors can back a team to win more or fewer games in a season than the line set by the sportsbook. For example, a win total bet of Over 89.5 would pay out if a team wins at least 90 games. Awards betting is also available in some states, allowing bettors to back a particular player to win a season-ending award such as MVP, Cy Young or Rookie of the Year. Some players also have lines associated with their season-long outputs, such as how many home runs they will hit during the season.


































