In 2022 there were only three wide receivers who reached the 170 target mark, or an average of 10 every game. In 2023, because I don't project injuries for most players, I have six players projected with 170+ targets. They are, Cooper Kupp, Ja'Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, and Stefon Diggs.
Jefferson, Adams, and Hill all hit the mark in 2022. Kupp saw 191 targets in 2021, and was on pace to top 170 again before his injury in 2023. Chase was also on pace last year, but only played 12 games. Diggs has been between 154 and 166 each of his three years in Buffalo and I'm expecting slightly more pass volume for the Bills this year with both Josh Allen and his head coach talking about him running less. In other words, I'm not exactly going out on a ledge projecting any of these players to 170 targets. So who are the surprising players who could reach the mark?
In the projections below, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Diontae Johnson are the next three highest in projected targets. But it's the guy right below them who could absolutely make the leap this year. Garrett Wilson earned 147 targets in his rookie season and will now be playing with the quarterback who made 10 targets per game the norm for Davante Adams. Assuming Wilson earns the respect from Aaron Rodgers that he deserves, he could be the latest Rodgers' wide receiver to sit at the top of the wide receiver target rankings.
Another dark horse is D.J. Moore. Moore already has a season with 163 targets under his belt and the Bears just traded for him at the expense of another first round pick. Both DeAndre Hopkins and Stefon Diggs saw 10 targets per game in their first year with their news team and A.J. Brown just saw a career-high 145 targets in his first year with the Eagles. If Moore and Justin Fields hit it off early, and the Bears let loose of the reigns on their quarterback, Moore could be in the discussion as well.
Less likely, but still possible, receivers to join the club could be Drake London, Chris Olave, Christian Watson, and Treylon Burks. Yes, I am still drafting as many wide receivers from the 2023 class as I can.
Here are my early Fantasy Football projections at wide receiver: