Fantasy managers won't forget how St. Brown helped them win Fantasy titles last year, but they shouldn't expect massive weekly numbers again. That's because St. Brown's late-season inflated numbers (11 targets per game) came mostly with short-area targets D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson on the sideline. Not only are they back, but the Lions added a pair of dangerous downfield receivers in DJ Chark and Jameson Williams this offseason, further creating opportunity conflicts for St. Brown. His role as the Lions' slot guy is unquestioned -- he'll be there and will play a lot. But you should expect a pretty significant downturn in targets, which will lead to lesser stats. Case in point: during his five-game smash streak, St. Brown had an 18.9% explosive play rate, 11.0 yard receiving average and 7.04 average depth of target, all ranking outside of the top 35 among receivers in those games. Turn down the volume on St. Brown on Draft Day -- only pick him if he falls into Round 8.
Detroit's offseason acquisitions could potentially lead to a lesser role for St. Brown than he had in the final six games of last season, Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press reports. "Adding some receivers, I think we're a complete offense now if you ask me, so I'm excited to see what we can do," St. Brown noted. Only Cooper Kupp was more productive than St. Brown was down the stretch of last season, but he got there with an inflated target share that was aided by the absences of fellow short-range receivers T.J. Hockenson and D'Andre Swift. The healthy return of those two alone would figure to eat away at a large chunk of the 11.2 targets per game St. Brown was seeing. Add in the fact that Detroit now has two promising perimeter receivers in DJ Chark and Jameson Williams (knee), and St. Brown could see something of a downturn in offensive opportunities relative to last year's productive stretch that saw him average 8.5 receptions, 93.3 receiving yards and one touchdown per game.
St. Brown is being joined by 2022 first-round draft pick Jameson Williams within the Lions' receiving corps, Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press reports. After trying to get by with aging veterans in Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman last year, Detroit enters the 2022 campaign with a significant upgrade at outside receiver in the form of Jameson Williams and a 25-year-old second-rounder (2018) in DJ Chark. Considering Chark owns an impressive 4.34 40 time and still might be markedly slower than Jameson Williams (who was unable to participate in the 40 this offseason), St. Brown stands to benefit from these speedy additions, which likely will give St. Brown more room to work in the middle of the field. The main concern is how St. Brown's volume will be affected after he averaged 11.2 targets per game over the final six contests of the 2021 season.
St. Brown caught eight passes for 109 yards and one touchdown on 10 targets while running for 12 yards on one carry against Green Bay on Sunday. The big game rounds out what has been a highly promising second half to St. Brown's rookie season, one that ends with six straight games with double-digit targets (67 total) while accumulating 51 catches for 560 yards and five touchdowns (76.1 percent catch rate, 8.4 yards per target). He even added 61 yards and a touchdown on the ground in that span. It's asking a lot of St. Brown to expect him to maintain this elite level of production over the course of an entire season, but this has been his standard of play since his college days at USC.
St. Brown caught eight passes for 111 yards and one touchdown on 11 targets and ran for 23 yards and one touchdown on two carries against Seattle on Sunday. The rookie fourth-round pick has been on a tear in the past five weeks, and this effort was his most productive entry yet in what was already a highly impressive stretch. St. Brown had 35 receptions for 340 yards and three touchdowns on 46 targets in the four games prior to this one, and at no point in that span could anyone accuse St. Brown of benefiting from the quarterback play, especially in the games featuring Tim Boyle. The Packers defense looks like a tougher task in Week 18, but it may be unwise to doubt St. Brown at this point.
St. Brown caught nine of 11 targets for 91 yards and one touchdown during Sunday's 20-16 loss to the Falcons. He added 19 rushing yards on two carries. St. Brown keeps rolling and has now seen at least 11 targets in four consecutive games while posting at least 86 yards with a touchdown in three of them. This latest stat line might be the most impressive, though, considering the rookie did it with backup Tim Boyle under center. While the potential return of pass-catching running back D'Andre Swift (shoulder) could impact St. Brown's target count in Week 17 against Seattle, it's hard to imagine that Detroit will move away from the surging slot receiver regardless of whether Boyle or Jared Goff (COVID-19) is under center.
|WK||DATE||OPP||OPP RANK||OPP FPTS|
|5||10/09||@New England Patriots||5||18.56|
|9||11/06||Green Bay Packers||14||20.67|
|11||11/20||@New York Giants||11||20.35|
|15||12/18||@New York Jets||13||20.65|
|18||01/08||@Green Bay Packers||14||20.67|
Red Zone Trends
|3 Year Avg||119||90||912||5||48||10.13||137|