The Chicago White Sox enter a transition year in 2024. In the midst of what would turn out to be their worst season since 1970, long-time lead execs Rick Hahn and Ken Williams were ousted, and Chris Getz was elevated to GM in their place. What follows now is a rebuild of yet-to-be-determined scale and, thus, presumed non-contention, even in the worst division in baseball.
Excited yet, Sox fans? At least there's the ongoing stadium grift to distract you. Anyhow, let's tend to the necessary business of previewing the 2024 White Sox, like it or not.
Win total projection, odds
- 2023 record: 61-101 (fourth place in AL Central)
- 2024 SportsLine win total over/under: 63.5
- World Series odds (via SportsLine): +25000
Projected lineup
- Andrew Benintendi, LF
- Yoán Moncada, 3B
- Luis Robert Jr., CF
- Eloy Jiménez, DH
- Andrew Vaughn, 1B
- Paul DeJong, SS
- Dominic Fletcher, RF
- Nicky Lopez, 2B
- Martín Maldonado, C
Chicago's offense placed 29th in MLB in runs scored and 29th in offensive WAR last season. It was a bad unit, and despite significant churn going into 2024, it again figures to be a bad unit outside of emerging star Luis Robert Jr.
Projected rotation
- Dylan Cease, RHP
- Michael Kopech, RHP
- Erick Redde, RHP
- Chris Flexen, RHP
- Michael Soroka, RHP
Last season, the Sox rotation ranked 23rd in MLB with a starters' ERA of 4.87, and they ranked 26th with a starters' FIP of 4.77. Two of the South Siders' top starters from a season ago – Mike Clevinger and Lucas Giolito – are now elsewhere, as is Lance Lynn. Cease may also not be long for the team, as we'll explore below.
Projected bullpen
- Closer: RHP Deivi García or RHP John Brebbia or RHP Dominic Leone or RHP Jesse Chavez
- Setup: Whatever names above don't fill the closer role maybe RHP Jordan Leasure
- Middle: LHP Tim Hill, RHP Alex Speas
- Long: LHP Garrett Crochet, RHP Touki Toussaint
The 2023 Sox pen ranked 26th in the majors with a relief ERA of 4.88 and 25th in the majors with a relief FIP of 4.61. Those figures are only so instructive, however, as there's been a great deal of turnover within the relief corps. Of the 10 Sox hurlers who recorded at least one save in 2023, just two – Jesse Scholtens and Jimmy Lambert, with one save apiece – have a shot at returning for the 2024 season.
Will slow-playing a Dylan Cease trade pay off?
Ever since the Sox signaled a rebuild was in order, trade speculation has swirled about Cease, the team's 28-year-old ace. Cease is not far removed from a 2022 season in which he was the runner-up for the AL Cy Young award. He took a step back this past season in terms of top-line results, throwing 177 innings with a 4.58 ERA. However, Chicago's league-worst defense didn't help those outputs, and he also suffered from bad luck. Cease offers premium stuff – including a fastball that averages more than 95 mph with strong rising action and a wipeout slider. Cease also has two years of team control left, which is another way of saying he's not eligible for free agency until after the 2025 season. He's one of the most coveted starters on the trade market and for good reason.
It's understandable that Getz has taken the cautious approach to a Cease trade, as nailing the return is going to be essential to the Sox's long-term success. Perhaps the GM is waiting out the free-agent market, which, even though we're well into March, still includes two ace-ish starters in Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. It's also possible the Sox are operating with an eye toward the trade deadline, but doing so would, of course, eat into Cease's remaining team control. Another possibility that must be noted is that the Sox prefer to retain Cease and angle for an extension. This would be contrary to a great deal of credible reporting, but such situations are always fluid. The guess here is that Getz is waiting out the glacially paced free-agent market for starting pitchers and continuing to workshop possible deals. Whatever the specifics, trading Cease is a hugely important step for the Sox and one they can't afford to misplay.
Will the Sox finally nail their top draft pick?
The White Sox are no strangers to high draft picks in recent years, but they've mostly squandered those opportunities. They fared well in back-to-back drafts back in 2013 and 2014, when they nabbed Tim Anderson and Carlos Rodón with their respective top selections. Since then, though, it's been a bit of a wasteland. The seven top picks since then have combined for a WAR at the major-league level of 6.2. More than half of that modest figure belongs to Madrigal, who, of course, now plays for the crosstown Cubs.
In fairness, it's too soon to cast judgment upon their most recent top selections, who have yet to reach the majors, and shortstop Colson Montgomery (No. 22 overall, 2021) and lefty Noah Schultz (No. 26 overall, 2022) are both quite promising. Broadly speaking, the Sox are in line to enjoy better draft fortunes since Mike Shirley was named scouting director in late 2019. This year, Shirley will be working with his highest spot yet, as the White Sox have the No. 5 overall pick. It's an intriguing draft class this year at the top end, and Shirley and the Sox need to hit on a future core contributor in order to advance the rebuild in the proper direction.
What would make for a successful season?
A rebuilding team almost necessarily has an unsatisfying definition of success. Sure, it's the AL Central, and it's possible the Sox enjoy a gathering of miracles and get to a win total in the 80s and thus matter. That's unlikely, though. Instead, the White Sox -- in addition to getting a haul for Cease and making their best top pick in years -- need some roster clarity. Being able to flip Moncada and Jiménez at the deadline going into their 2025 club-option years would be welcome. As well, the org should decide whether Robert Jr. is a blockbuster trade candidate or a centerpiece for years to come and thus worth an extension. It's all forward-looking, and that's how success will be defined in 2024.
