Joel Embiid and Kyle Lowry are both out for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals when the Miami Heat host the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday, making an already difficult matchup that much more challenging for each. Philadelphia was 6-8 this season without Embiid in the lineup, but won its last three when he was unavailable. Miami was 12-7 during the regular season without Lowry, and won its last two playoff games while he sat out with a hamstring injury. The Heat and 76ers split their regular season series against each other with two wins apiece, and continue their rivalry on Monday in the second round of the 2022 NBA playoffs.
Game 1 is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from FTX Arena in Miami, where the Heat won all three of their home playoff games against Atlanta in the first round. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Heat as 7.5-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored is set at 208.5 in the latest 76ers vs. Heat odds. Before you make any 76ers vs. Heat picks or NBA predictions, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the third full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Sixers vs. Heat, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Heat vs. Sixers:
- 76ers vs. Heat spread: Heat -7.5
- 76ers vs. Heat over-under: 208.5 points
- 76ers vs. Heat money line: Heat -360, 76ers +285
- PHI: The 76ers are 4-2 against the spread in the playoffs
- MIA: The Heat are 3-2 against the spread in the playoffs
Why the 76ers can cover
Philadelphia performed very well in the first round series against the Raptors. The Sixers scored 119.5 points per 100 possessions against Toronto, shooting 48.8 percent from the field and 40.8 percent from 3-point range. Philadelphia also built on its regular season success at the free throw line, making 84.9 percent of more than 25 attempts per game. The 76ers finished in the top three of the league in free throw creation and free throw accuracy, putting pressure on opposing defenses. Philadelphia has a pair of impressive shot creators on the perimeter, with Tyrese Maxey scoring 21.3 points per game and producing a 63.5 percent true shooting mark in the first round.
James Harden averaged 21.0 points, 10.5 assists and 7.1 rebounds per game in 21 regular season appearances with Philadelphia, and the 76ers led the NBA in live-ball turnovers, committing only 6.6 per game. On the defense, Philadelphia held Toronto to less than 1.1 points per possession in the series, and the 76ers finished No. 2 in the league in 3-pointers allowed (11.4 per game). The 76ers were also in the top 10 in 3-point accuracy allowed and assists allowed during the regular season.
Why the Heat can cover
Jimmy Butler (knee) is listed as questionable on the Heat's injury report, but is expected to play after sitting out of Miami's Game 5 win against Atlanta last Tuesday. Since leaving Philadelphia following his trade from Minnesota in 2018, Butler is 5-3 against the 76ers and has averaged 20.6 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game. Nearly 60 percent of his shots this season have come within 10 feet of the basket, and without Embiid in the lane to dissuade him from driving, Butler should be aggressive on Monday night.
Miami also held Philadelphia to just 32 percent shooting from the three-point line this year, while Philly shot 37 percent against all other teams. Without Embiid down low attracting double teams, the Sixers will have even fewer open shots beyond the arc and the Heat should pressure the 76ers on the perimeter defensively.
How to make Heat vs. 76ers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 215 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.
So who wins 76ers vs. Heat? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
