The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics begin a seven-game series on Wednesday with a trip to the 2023 NBA Finals on the line. TD Garden hosts Game 1 of the 2023 Eastern Conference finals, with both teams playing well in the postseason. The No. 2 seed Celtics advanced with wins over the Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers, while the No. 8 seed Heat put together an unexpected 2023 NBA playoff run with wins over the Milwaukee Bucks and New York Knicks. Cody Zeller (head) is questionable for Miami, with Tyler Herro (hand) and Victor Oladipo (knee) ruled out.
Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as an 8.5-point favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 213 in the latest Heat vs. Celtics odds. Before locking in any Celtics vs. Heat picks, you need to see the NBA playoff predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference finals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Heat and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Heat vs. Celtics:
- Celtics vs. Heat spread: Celtics -8.5
- Celtics vs. Heat over/under: 213 points
- Celtics vs. Heat money line: Celtics -365, Heat +285
- MIA: The Heat are 19-26-1 against the spread in road games
- BOS: The Celtics are 28-20 against the spread in home games
- Celtics vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Heat can cover
The Heat have an excellent defensive foundation, headlined by top-tier coaching from Erik Spoelstra and tremendous impact on the back line from Bam Adebayo. Adebayo is coming off a regular season in which he averaged 20.4 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, but he is an even bigger presence on defense with the ability to protect the rim and also defend on the perimeter. The Heat posted top-10 defensive metrics in the regular season, including top-four marks in defensive rebound rate, free throw prevention, and turnover creation.
From there, Miami has improved in the playoffs, giving up only 1.11 points per possession to opponents. The Heat are holding the opposition to 45.5% shooting, including 33.8% from 3-point range, and Miami is allowing only 43.5 points in the paint, 10.6 fast break points, and 22.5 assists per game. Miami also leads the 2023 NBA playoffs with 20.4 points per game off turnovers, and the Heat take advantage of 7.5 steals per game to engineer the work in transition. See which team to back at SportsLine.
Why the Celtics can cover
Boston has the benefit of what projects to be a raucous crowd at TD Garden. The Celtics finished 32-9 at home in the regular season, out-scoring opponents by 10.1 points per 100 possessions. Boston is also out-scoring opponents by 9.1 points per 100 possessions in home playoff games, and the Celtics also bring tremendous metrics on both ends of the floor. The Celtics are scoring more than 1.18 points per possession during the playoffs, leading the postseason with 60.7% true shooting and 39.5% shooting from 3-point range. Boston is averaging 25.2 assists and 12.0 turnovers per game in the playoffs, and the team's defense is elite.
The Celtics are giving up only 1.11 points per possession in the postseason, and Boston is allowing only 19.3 free throw attempts and 41.8 points in the paint per game. Boston is also holding opponents to 44.3% shooting from the field with 6.8 blocked shots per game in the playoffs. That builds off a regular season in which the Celtics ranked in the top five of the NBA in defensive rebound rate, field goal percentage allowed, 3-point percentage allowed, and free throw attempts allowed. See which team to pick here.
How to make Heat vs. Celtics picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 214 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Celtics, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. Heat spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.
