The Warriors routed the upstart Pelicans in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals. On Tuesday (10:30 p.m. ET) in Oakland, Golden State welcomes star Stephen Curry back to its lineup as it looks to take a 2-0 series lead.

Oddsmakers have installed the Warriors as 11-point favorites, with the over-under for total points scored set at 227.

For the best insight on how to pick this game against the spread, check out data from the SportsLine Projection Model. The advanced computer model simulates each game 10,000 times, analyzing every possible matchup and trend to project a final score and player statistics.

We can tell you the model leans toward the over coming through and it also has generated a point-spread selection that hits better than half the time.

The model knows Curry is listed as probable to return from his nearly six-week absence as the Warriors seek their 14th consecutive home playoff win.

However, they did just fine without him in a 123-101 Game 1 victory over the Pelicans, who were coming off an impressive sweep of Portland in the first round.

Klay Thompson scored 27 points, Kevin Durant had 26 and Draymond Green recorded a triple-double as Golden State surged to a 21-point halftime lead.

Perhaps even more encouraging was a defensive effort that held the Pelicans to 40 combined points in the second and third quarters. It also limited New Orleans to 43.8 percent shooting, 11 free-throw attempts and notched a decisive 65-46 rebounding edge.

Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo, the New Orleans backcourt duo who shined in the first round, were held to 20 combined points on 8 of 24 shooting. Star forward Anthony Davis had 21 points and 10 rebounds, but was held to his lowest point total since March 30.

The home team is on a 5-2 ATS run in this series, but the Pelicans have covered five of their last six road games.

Will the return of Curry inspire Golden State to another blowout victory, or will New Orleans bounce back with a strong Game 2 performance and stay within the spread? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Pelicans-Warriors spread hits more than 50 percent of the time, from the advanced computer model that already simulated the game 10,000 times.