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The Kansas City Chiefs will be looking for revenge when they host the Buffalo Bills in the NFL divisional round on Sunday evening. The Chiefs suffered a 38-20 defeat when these two teams met in October. However, Kansas City enters Sunday's showdown having won 10 of its last 11 games. Buffalo, meanwhile, has won five straight after losing back-to-back games in December. 

Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS. Kansas City is a two-point favorite and the over-under for total points scored is 54 in the latest Bills vs. Chiefs odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any Chiefs vs. Bills picks, be sure to see the 2021 NFL playoff predictions from SportsLine's Larry Hartstein

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. This season he has been on fire. Hartstein is 70-46-1 in his last 117 NFL sides, for a profit of more than $1800.

In addition, Hartstein has gone an astounding 23-8 in his last 31 NFL picks involving Kansas City, returning $1400 to $100 bettors. Anyone who has followed him is way up. 

Now, Hartstein has zeroed in on Chiefs vs. Bills, and just locked in his NFL playoff picks and divisional round predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL playoff odds and divisional round betting lines for Bills vs. Chiefs:

  • Bills vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -2
  • Bills vs. Chiefs over-under: 54 points
  • Bills vs. Chiefs money line: Kansas City -130, Buffalo +110
  • KC: The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as home favorites
  • BUF: The Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall
Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

Why the Chiefs can cover

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw eight interceptions in his first six games this season, but the former NFL MVP has been taking care of the ball much better down the stretch. In fact, Mahomes has thrown just one interception in his last four outings. Meanwhile, Mahomes has thrown two or more touchdown passes in each of his last six games, which includes a five touchdown outburst last week against the Steelers

Tight end Travis Kelce has also been playing at a high level when it matters most. Kelce, who finished the regular season with 92 receptions for 1,125 yards, has recorded at least one touchdown catch in each of his last four games. 

Why the Bills can cover 

Quarterback Josh Allen draws the majority of the attention from opposing defenses for good reason, but Devin Singletary has been productive in recent weeks. Singletary has scored two touchdowns in each of his last three games, and he averaged 5.1 yards per carry last week against the Patriots. Singletary is a major factor in Buffalo's rushing attack, which averaged 129.9 yards per game on the ground in the regular season, the sixth-best mark in the NFL.

Defensively, Buffalo features the league's top-ranked scoring defense, allowing opponents to score just 17.0 points per game on average. The Bills held the Chiefs to just 20 points in their first meeting this season, forcing Mahomes to throw two interceptions in the 38-20 win.

How to make Bills vs Chiefs picks

For Sunday's divisional round matchup, Hartstein is leaning over on the point total. He also has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's only sharing what it is, and which side of the Bills vs. Chiefs spread to back, at SportsLine.

So who wins Chiefs vs. Bills in Sunday's 2022 NFL playoff divisional round matchup? And which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see Larry Hartstein's Bills vs. Chiefs pick and analysis, all from the NFL expert who's 23-8 on his latest against the spread picks involving Kansas City, and find out.