Thanks to the widespread proliferation of legalized sports betting, we've seen an explosion of available markets in terms of NFL awards. Which is fantastic because the MVP market is, as I noted while highlighting some favorites, mid-tier picks and long shots last week, quite the mess due to longer shots winning the award several times in the last few years.
The markets for Offensive Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year offer much more viable long shots to land a winner. Offensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Rookie of the Year also feature interesting longshots. Comeback Player of the Year is maybe the most intriguing market of all this season.
As with the other awards we've discussed (see: links above), I'll have some best bets, some midrange bets and some long shots for the Coach of the Year award. But first, some general theories about how to attack this specific market.
For Coach of the Year, you want to find the coach who beats his preseason win total by the biggest margin. Here are the last 10 winners: Brian Daboll (+2 games over preseason win total), Mike Vrabel (+2.5), Kevin Stefanski (+2.5), John Harbaugh (+5.5), Matt Nagy (+4.5), Sean McVay (+5), Jason Garrett (+4.5), Ron Rivera (+6.5), Bruce Arians (+3.5), Rivera (+5).
It's that simple -- sometimes you'll end up with a coach who barely beats the number but surprises everyone. Largely though, you want a coach of a team who blows their win total out of the water (Daboll shocked the world with the Giants, Vrabel was the No. 1 seed and Stefanski took the freaking Browns to the playoffs).
There's probably nothing more important than an archetype for an award so let's unlock some winners.
Coach of the Year
Best top bet: Sean Payton (9-1)
Betting on a COY under 10-1 is kind of silly considering all the factors that take place but we have self-imposed parameters in place, and we're going to live by them! Payton is easy for me: If the Broncos make the playoffs, he's winning this award. Denver was terrible last year and Russell Wilson looked broken. If Russ is good, Payton will get all the credit, and if the Broncos win 11+ games, they'll be in the playoffs. Denver doesn't even need to win the division for Payton to win this award, they just have to be a playoff team.
Best midrange option: Frank Reich (25-1)
The easiest bet on the board -- Frank Reich was so good with the Colts, the guy who fired him (Jim Irsay) spent the press conference for the next guy (Jeff Saturday, never forget) bragging about Reich's record in Indy. Colts jokes aside, going from Matt Rhule to Reich might be a bigger upgrade than Nathaniel Hackett to Sean Payton. That seems mean, but consider: 1) Frank Reich is a professional football coach, and 2) the coaching staff he put around him might have Carolina at the top of the NFL in terms of overall quality, top to bottom. The Panthers' win total is 7.5 -- if they win 10 games, Reich is in the wheelhouse for this award. Win more than that, take the division and this is a shoo-in at a very tasty price. If you have qualms about Carolina winning the division, well, that's fine -- I'm not going to keep hammering home their consistent offensive line personnel, the upside of Bryce Young, the high-floor pass catchers they have or the potentially elite defense Carolina could sport.
Best long shots: Mike Vrabel (35-1)
A recent one-time winner of this award (see: above), Vrabel's Titans are being written off big time this year. Their win total is 7.5 -- like the Panthers, even making the playoffs at 10-7 would get Vrabel in range for potentially winning this award. No one thinks Tennessee can be good; the Colts and Texans are garnering more interest despite the signing of DeAndre Hopkins and the presence of Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. The offensive line is a concern, for sure, but the defense could/should be better than people think. What if the Jaguars stumble and the rookie quarterbacks in the division aren't good (not unusual at all)? Tennessee winning the division at 9-8 might even be enough for Vrabel to snag this award a second time. He's a master at motivating his team when they're underdogs and the Titans will be dogs plenty this year.
