The San Francisco 49ers and Denver Broncos will wrap up Sunday's Week 3 action when these two storied franchises go head to head on "Sunday Night Football."
Both teams are in a rather unexpected place heading into the prime-time matchup. For the Broncos, they find themselves 1-1 on the young season but have hardly looked like the juggernaut that many believed they would be under Russell Wilson and first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett. Meanwhile, San Francisco is getting ready to start Jimmy Garoppolo after Trey Lance suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 2 vs. Seattle.
Here, we'll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we'll also take a look at several player props and hand in our picks for how we see this showdown unfolding.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Sept. 25 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: 49ers -1.5, O/U 44
Line movement
This line opened at Broncos -3 way back in May and held throughout the opening weekend of the regular season, but did start to see a swing coming out of Week 2. On Sunday night, it dipped to Broncos -2.5 and by Monday morning it was dragged to a pick'em. Since then, it's moved in the direction of San Francisco, which is now the 1.5-point favorite.
The pick: 49ers -1.5. Small number to lay on the road against an inferior opponent. While the Lance injury hurts San Francisco long term, it is a better football team right now with Garoppolo under center. With George Kittle set to make his season debut, he now has another weapon in the passing game to fend off the Broncos, who have looked inept on that side of the ball through two weeks. This will also be the toughest defense that Wilson has faced during his time in Denver with the 49ers allowing just 4.1 yards per play through two weeks (second best in the NFL).
Key trend: 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Over/Under total
The total opened at 46.5 in the spring and that's the highest we'd seen this number despite some volatile movement since its unveiling. It fell to a low of 43 on Monday morning following the events of Week 2 but did rise to 46 before settling back down to 44 as of Friday afternoon.
The pick: Under 44. I'd be much happier if I could find this at around 45 points, but the Under is still a lean here. The Broncos offense has been putrid to begin the season and I'm not sure that'll slow down much against a top-10 defense as the 49ers have. San Francisco's offense should move the ball well with Garoppolo, but Kyle Shanahan wants to run the football and I'm looking for a 23-20 score in this game to keep us safe.
Key trend: Under is 5-0 in the 49ers' last five games.
Jimmy Garoppolo props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -108, Under -127)
- Passing yards: 237.5 (Over -119, Under -115)
- Passing attempts: 31.5 (Over -109, Under -125)
- Longest pass completion: 36.5 (Over -123, Under -111)
- Completions: 20.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -111, Under -123)
If you're looking for an Over, I'd lean toward Garoppolo's 1.5 passing touchdowns at -108. He'll have his full complement of weapons with Kittle making his debut in Week 3 with no restrictions and threw for at least two touchdowns in six of his 15 starts for the 49ers last year. With a banged-up backfield, Shanahan could elect to throw the ball a bit more in the red area. Garoppolo did throw picks in eight games last year, so the Over. 0.5 INTs may be another way to lean against a secondary that does boast several highly talented players.
Russell Wilson props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +108, Under -148)
- Passing yards: 235.5 (Over -106, Under -129)
- Rushing yards: 8.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
- Passing attempts: 31.5 (Over -109, Under -125)
- Longest pass completion: 36.5 (Over -123, Under -111)
- Completions: 20.5 (-Over 111, Under -123)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -109, Under -125)
With the Broncos set up to possibly be trailing in this game, the Over 31.5 pass attempts is an interesting prop. He went over this number in Week 1 and fell just short of it in Week 2, dropping back 31 times. While the value isn't exactly there, the Broncos have shown us that they want to run the ball when they get toward the goal line, so the Under on Wilson's 1.5 passing touchdown prop is another way to look, albeit sitting at -148.
Player props to consider
Javonte Williams total receptions: Over 3.5 (+126). I don't expect Williams to see 12 targets as he did in Week 1, but I also don't believe he'll be limited to just one catch like he was in Week 2 either. The truth is somewhere in the middle and with the 49ers boasting a strong pass rush, we could see Wilson dump off a ton of quick passes to Williams, so getting this at plus money feels like solid value.
Deebo Samuel total rushing yards: Over 32.5 (-104). With a banged-up backfield, Samuel could be asked to do more in San Francisco's running game. He's already flown over this total in both of his games as well, rushing for 52 and 53 yards in the first two weeks.
