Finally.
Last week on Monday Night Football, we were forced to watch two of the NFL's most disappointing teams do battle as the Bears hosted the Saints. The week before, the Packers made pretty easy work of the disappointing Falcons in a game in which Green Bay was favored by 13 points.
Three weeks ago, it was the train-wreck Jets hosting the so-so Dolphins.
Week 12? Saints again, this time against the Ravens.
Depressing Titans in Week 11, underachieving Panthers in Week 10, incompetent Giants and Redskins and in Weeks 9 and 8.
Neither the Texans nor the Steelers looked like playoff teams when they met on Monday night in Week 7, nor did the Rams or Redskins when they hosted the 49ers and the Seahawks in the previous two weeks.
You have to go back to Week 4 before finding a Monday night game between two clear contenders, but even then the Chiefs were 1-2 before upsetting the Patriots.
It has been a tough year for prime-time football fans, with lopsided matchups becoming ubiquitous after sunset. But for the first time, I would say, since the Eagles played the Colts on Sept. 15, we can now sit back and watch a Monday nighter between two teams that have legitimate Super Bowl chances.
The 11-3 Denver Broncos have already won the AFC West and are in line to capture a first-round bye, while the AFC North-leading Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1) are a victory or two away from clinching a playoff spot for the fourth consecutive season.
Not a bad way to wrap up the 2014 Monday night schedule. Let's elaborate while breaking down the matchup in both serious and non-serious fashion. Thirteen things to know:
1. Peyton Manning hasn't been himself
There's no doubt about it. After a hot start that had Manning well on track to win a sixth MVP award, his numbers have steadily declined during the second half of the season. And lately, he has also been dealing with a thigh injury.
That and a bad cold seemed to hold him back last week against the Chargers, with the surefire Hall of Famer throwing just 20 passes for the second consecutive week. He was still 14 of 20 and he didn't turn the ball over, but it was the latest in a string of conservative if not ho-hum performances.
| Peyton Manning in 2014 | ||
| Categories | First 7 games | Next 7 games |
| Record | 6-1 | 5-2 |
| Comp. percentage | 69.1 | 65.2 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 15 |
| Interceptions | 3 | 8 |
| Yards/attempt | 8.5 | 7.6 |
| Yards/game | 304.9 | 287.0 |
| Rating | 119.0 | 94.4 |
At 38, Manning is the oldest starting skill-position player in the NFL, so it's fair to wonder if his body is breaking down a little. That thigh injury kept him out of practice early last week as Denver began preparations for this game, and the guy has taken some hits of late.
Sure, he has only been sacked 14 times this season. But it does seem as though he really started to struggle when he was hit five times and sacked twice in a surprising 22-7 Week 11 loss to the St. Louis Rams.
This is something you don't see happen to Manning very often:
I'm not suggesting he's more hurt than anyone is letting on, but he could be wearing down.
Manning battled back from that Rams loss with a solid performance against Miami, but the three weeks since have been uncharacteristic, particularly when it comes to his accuracy. He was just 17 of 34 against Kansas City in Week 13, and although he has had only 12 total incompletions in his past two games, a lot of those were hittable targets.
Big moment in the fourth quarter against the Chargers:
Third down early against the Bills:
Too high for a wide-open Emmanuel Sanders in the red zone:
And one of his two picks in what was his fourth multi-interception performance in the past seven weeks:
He also appears to be having a little more trouble than usual getting air under his deep balls, as you can see here:
And here:
Pro Football Focus has an advanced stat called accuracy percentage, which calculates how often quarterbacks are -- you guessed it -- accurate by removing throwaways, spikes, batted passes and throws in which the quarterback was hit as he threw from the pocket.
During the first 12 weeks of the season, Manning was one of 12 qualifying quarterbacks who were accurate at least 75 percent of the time. But during the past three weeks, No. 18's accuracy percentage has dropped to 66.2, which ranks ahead of only three other pivots.
| PFF: Least accurate passers since Week 12* | |
| Player | Accuracy percentage |
| Josh McCown | 57.8 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 63.6 |
| Cam Newton | 64.1 |
| Peyton Manning | 66.2 |
| Kyle Orton | 67.0 |
| *Not including this weekend's games | |
Naturally, with Manning taking a bit of a step back, so too has the entire Denver offense.
| Broncos offense | ||
| Metric | 2013 (rank) | 2014 (rank) |
| Points/game | 37.9 (1st) | 29.1 (5th) |
| Yards/game | 457.3 (1st) | 400.7 (4th) |
But one important factor to consider is the level of competition. The Broncos have faced seven of the league's top 10 defenses, and they can't play themselves so only nine are eligible. And because they've played Kansas City and San Diego twice, 10 of their 14 games have taken place against defenses ranked in the top 11 in the NFL.
Meanwhile, zero have come against defenses ranked in the bottom 12. And during this recent rut, all five of the defenses they've faced have ranked in the top 11.
| Broncos opponents: Defensive rankings | ||
| Year | Top 10 | Bottom 10 |
| 2013 | 2 | 9 |
| 2014 | 9 | 0 |
FYI: The Bengals defense ranks 20th when it comes to yards allowed, which makes it the lowest-ranked D the Broncos have faced this season. But Cincy is giving up only 20.6 points per game, which ranks 10th in the NFL.
2. But the Broncos defense is a different animal this December
Entering Week 16 a year ago, the Broncos were coming off of four consecutive games in which they allowed at least 27 points and top pass-rusher Von Miller was on the verge of being lost for the remainder of the season. The defense ranked 24th in terms of points allowed and 23rd in terms of yards allowed.
This year, it's a completely different story. With a healthy Miller and offseason acquisitions Aqib Talib, DeMarcus Ware and T.J. Ward contributing in significant fashion, they've given up 17 or fewer points in each of their past three games. They've surrendered five fewer points a game overall and they rank fourth in terms of yards allowed.
| Broncos defense | ||
| Year | PPG allowed | YPG allowed |
| 2013 | 24.9 | 356.0 |
| 2014 | 21.6 | 309.6 |
Defensive tackle Terrance Knighton continues to play at a very high level and linebacker Brandon Marshall has been a pleasant surprise, making it easier for them to overcome the loss of injured linebacker Danny Trevathan. But the way I see it, the Broncos' success on defense this season can traced back to four guys who weren't on the active roster when Denver made its Super Bowl run last winter.
Aqib Talib
- Where was he last January? Playing at a Pro Bowl level for the rival Patriots.
- What's he doing now? The 2008 first-round pick is coming off an AFC Defensive Player of the Week performance against the Chargers. In San Diego, he intercepted Philip Rivers to lock up the victory in the fourth quarter. By no means has he been perfect, but opposing quarterbacks have a sub-60 completion percentage and a sub-80 passer rating when throwing his way. Pretty good for the second-best corner on the team.
- Where was he last January? After a phenomenal regular season, he tore his ACL against San Diego in the divisional playoffs.
- What's he doing now? Not only did the 25-year-old former undrafted free agent somehow make it back in time for the start of the regular season, but he has put together a pristine campaign. In fact, Pro Football Focus grades him as the best cornerback in the league. Harris is the only cornerback in the NFL who hasn't given up a touchdown on over 800 snaps.
| Where Chris Harris ranks among 30 CBs* | ||
| Categories | Total | Rank |
| PFF grade | 23.1 | 1st |
| Touchdowns allowed | 0 | 1st |
| Opp. passer rating | 47.8 | 1st |
| Opp. comp. percentage | 52.4 | 5th |
| *With at least 800 snaps | ||
DeMarcus Ware
- Where was he last January? Sitting at home wondering if the Cowboys would keep his aging body on the roster.
- What's he doing now? Left for dead by Dallas, Ware jumped conferences to the Broncos in the offseason. At that point, it was fair to wonder if this was merely going to become one of those awkward and forgettable late-career cameos (See: Emmitt Smith in Arizona). Nope, he has been completely rejuvenated with 10 sacks, a pair of forced fumbles and a pick. Forget about Elvis Dumervil.
Von Miller
- Where was he last January? On injured reserve with a torn ACL.
- What's he doing now? Miller has bounced back with a 13-sack season. Only J.J. Watt and Justin Houston have more quarterback pressures than the 25-year-old.
- Bonus: Did you know? Miller's actual name is Vonnie B'Vsean Miller.
3. And they've suddenly transformed into a running team?
This marks the first time in Manning's career in which he has thrown 20 or fewer passes in back-to-back games. And while correlation doesn't imply causation it's important to note that the Broncos won both of those games against teams with winning records.
How is it happening? The defense has been good and Manning has still been efficient, but the difference is that until-recently-anonymous running back C.J. Anderson is doing what anonymous Broncos running backs do.
He's tearing it up.
The second-year undrafted free agent out of Cal had just 21 carries in 12 career appearances before breaking free for 163 yards from scrimmage in a Week 10 victory over Oakland. And since then, he has been one of the most productive backs in the league.
| C.J. Anderson since Week 10 | ||
| Categories | Total | Rank |
| Yards | 597 | 1st |
| Yards/attempt | 4.6 | 7th |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 4th |
| Broken tackles | 29 | 2nd |
Anderson and Le'Veon Bell are the only two backs in football with three games with at least 160 yards from scrimmage during the second half of the season.
Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball were supposed to step up this year with Knowshon Moreno moving on, but they've both been hampered by injuries. Anderson has taken advantage in a major way, and as a result the Broncos have become a more balanced team.
Denver threw the ball 61 percent of the time last season, but that has dropped to 58 percent in 2014 ... and 41 percent in their past three games. Only the Jets and Texans have passed less frequently during that stretch.
So the Bengals can't afford to sell out either way.
4. Combine it all and are they the best team in football?
Knighton seems to think so, which is why he guaranteed a Super Bowl victory last week.
"It doesn't matter what happens. At the end of the year, we're hoisting that trophy. I don't care if New England doesn't lose again," said the man they call Pot Roast, per the Denver Post. "I don't care where we have to play. I don't care who our opponent is. We're not going to be satisfied until we hoist that trophy. So if we've got to go to New England [in the playoffs] and win somewhere we're not used to winning, we're going to make it happen. Write that. And put a big period after that one."
Football Outsiders agrees. Based on that site's Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system, the Broncos are indeed the most efficient team in football.
| Total DVOA through Week 15 | ||
| Team | DVOA | Record |
| Broncos | 33.2% | 11-3 |
| Patriots | 27.2% | 11-3 |
| Seahawks | 25.4% | 10-4 |
| Ravens | 25.1% | 9-5 |
| Packers | 21.7% | 10-4 |
Considering that I've yet to even get to the offensive line, which Pro Football Focus rates first in football when it comes to pass-blocking efficiency, there's a very real chance this is in fact the best all-around team in America.
5. The Bengals have a prime-time problem
It has nothing to do with Deion Sanders. I'm referring to the time of day, not the player. Here's a look at what Cincinnati has done in its past four prime-time games, dating back to the middle of the 2013 season:
•Thursday Night Football: Nov. 6, 2014
The Bengals are slaughtered 24-3 at home by a so-so Browns team. In one of the worst performances in bad performance history, quarterback Andy Dalton completes just 10 of 33 passes for 86 yards, zero touchdowns and three interceptions. His 2.0 passer rating is the lowest we've seen in four years from a quarterback with at least 10 pass attempts.
| Lowest passer ratings since 2012 | ||
| Player | Date | Rating |
| Andy Dalton | Nov. 6, 2014 | 2.0 |
| Brandon Weeden | Sept. 9, 2012 | 5.1 |
| John Skelton | Oct. 14, 2012 | 6.2 |
| Geno Smith | Oct. 5, 2014 | 7.6 |
| Min. 10 pass attempts | ||
•Sunday Night Football: Oct. 5, 2014
The Bengals are crushed 43-17 by a Patriots team that had been reeling coming off an ugly loss to the Chiefs. Dalton completes just 15 passes as the defense gives up 505 yards, allowing New England to control the ball for nearly 39 minutes.
•Sunday Night Football: Dec. 15, 2013
In the thick of the playoff race, the Bengals lose to a Steelers team that was just 5-8.
•Thursday Night Football: Oct. 31, 2013
Cincy loses in freak fashion on an overtime safety in Miami.
| Bengals: Daytime vs. nighttime (2013/2014) | ||
| Categories | Day games | Night games |
| Record | 19-5-1 | 1-4 |
| Point differential/game | +7.8 | -9.8 |
| Turnover differential | +8 | -7 |
It would be easy to pin this on Dalton, who has a 2-6 career record and a passer rating of just 64.4 in eight career prime-time affairs. But this isn't even a new problem. ESPN.com's Cole Harvey notes that, under Marvin Lewis, the Bengals have a .557 winning percentage in day games and a .286 winning percentage in night games. Lewis lost nine of his first 13 prime-time games sans Dalton.
But the Bengals weren't as talented a team before Dalton and Pro Bowl receiver A.J. Green became such a successful offensive battery. Now, they're expected to win some of these big nationally televised matchups. And instead, they're falling on their faces.
This could actually be more about the Bengals failing to beat good teams. They're 2-6 in regular-season prime-time games during the Dalton era, but they're also 0-3 in the playoffs since drafting Dalton.
So it's not as simple as being "afraid of the dark," as defensive end Wallace Gilberry suggested last week.
Their Week 1 Monday Night Football loss in 2012 came on the road against the eventual Super Bowl champion Ravens. Later that season, they lost a competitive game to an average Steelers team and beat a bad Eagles team. They beat that average Steelers team again early in 2013 and then hit this most recent four-game losing skid. Only one of those four losses came against a team that either finished with a winning record in 2013 or has one now, and that was the beating in Foxborough. Two of the other three losses -- to Miami and Pittsburgh -- came in relatively close games, on the road and against solid opponents.
They've also lost three consecutive wild-card games, all of which were obviously against playoff teams. The first two of those -- both losses to the Texans -- came as road underdogs.
What's really killing them is that 24-3 loss at home to the Browns. When that happened, the Bengals had officially developed a prime-time problem. They had become a football enigma.
This isn't a must-win game. Cincinnati can lose here and win the division. But before these guys are forced to once again play do-or-die football (in prime time, no less), it's important that they prove that they can finally deliver on a heightened stage.
No pressure though.
6. Jeremy Hill has become the focal point of the Cincinnati offense
But Dalton could have less weight on his shoulders due to the fact that -- much like the Broncos -- the Bengals have become strikingly more balanced of late on offense. Talib isn't the only reigning conference player of the week in this game, because rookie Bengals back Jeremy Hill took home AFC offensive honors after putting on yet another show (148 rushing yards and two touchdowns) in Week 15.
The second-round pick out of LSU has compiled over 150 yards from scrimmage three times in seven games since Week 9.
| Jeremy Hill since Week 9 | ||
| Categories | Total | Rank |
| Yards | 682 | 1st |
| Yards/attempt | 5.4 | 2nd |
| Touchdowns | 5 | 3rd |
Preseason starter Giovanni Bernard hit a rough patch just before midseason and then got hurt, paving the way for Hill, who ran for 154 yards and two scores in his first NFL start against Jacksonville. Bernard has since returned, but it's a pretty even platoon now.
And a very effective one.
The Bengals have defined balance the past three weeks, running the ball on exactly 50 percent of their offensive snaps. Only four teams have run more often this season than Cincinnati, which is quite impressive when you consider that it doesn't have a mobile quarterback.
So there has been a lot of talk about Dalton and Green, but don't overlook the young running backs in this game, particularly the red-hot Anderson and Hill.
And while you're not overlooking things, don't commit that error when assessing the Cincinnati offense as a whole. Green is healthy now and only two weeks removed from a 224-yard performance against the Steelers. Dalton isn't consistent but he has put together two gems with 125-plus passer ratings in the past month. And that line ranks second only to Denver in terms of pass-blocking efficiency (more on that in a moment).
But Hill might be putting the Bengals over the top. And against this Denver D, they will need all of their weapons to be on point.
7. The Bengals defense isn't in Cleveland anymore
The good news is the Bengals, who have been experiencing issues under new defensive coordinator Paul Guenther, are coming off a shutout. The bad news is that shutout came against the Browns while Johnny Manziel was making his first career start.
It's really tough to gauge your defense based on that, especially when going from Manziel to Peyton Manning.
Safety George Iloka admitted last week that "nothing" carries over.
"It's Peyton Manning and it's Johnny Manziel," Iloka said, per ESPN.com. "He'll be a good quarterback one of these days, but let's not put him in the same type of category right now. The only thing we can take from last week is how fired up we came, how intense we were and try and come out the gate the same way."
And that's especially the case when you consider how inconsistent this Cincy defense has been in 2014.
They gave up only 107 yards against Cleveland, which made that the best defensive performance in the NFL this season and the third-best in team history.
| Best Bengals defensive performances* | ||
| Date | Yards allowed | Points allowed |
| Last week | 107 | 0 |
| 11/29/2009 | 169 | 7 |
| 12/4/1997 | 175 | 14 |
| 11/24/1991 | 176 | 38 |
| 12/20/1992 | 176 | 10 |
| *Last 30 years | ||
But only seven days before that, Cincinnati surrendered 229 yards to Pittsburgh -- in the fourth quarter alone. They gave up 543 yards in total, marking the third time this season that defense surrendered 500 or more.
And yet only the Bengals and Cardinals have held opponents to 16 or fewer points on more than six occasions this season. How strange is this?
| How can you be this good and this bad in one year? | |
| Most games holding opponents below 17 points | Most games allowing opponents to gain over 500 yards |
| Bengals (7) | Bengals (3) |
| Cardinals (7) | Cardinals (3) |
| Bills (6) | Falcons (2) |
I guess the defense is just getting in line. This is a strange team, one that has lost 43-17, 27-0 and 24-3, tied 37-37 and won 30-0, 33-7 and 27-10. The Bengals are the only team in the NFL with three or more losses of 17-plus points and three or more wins of 17-plus points.
Inconsistent beats being bad, but this is a unit that ranked in the top five in terms of points allowed, yards allowed and takeaways last season. They lost Michael Johnson in free agency, but the rest of their key defensive players returned, including superstar Geno Atkins (back from a torn ACL) and top sack man Carlos Dunlap.
But a lot of veterans have let them down. Vontaze Burfict's season was a mess before he went to injured reserve, and guys like Gilberry, Robert Geathers, Domata Peko, Vincent Rey and Leon Hall just haven't been making plays.
Plus, it's Guenther and not Mike Zimmer running things. And apparently, that makes a big difference.
| Bengals defense during the Marvin Lewis era | ||
| Defensive coordinator | Avg. yards allowed rank | Avg. points allowed rank |
| Six seasons with Zimmer | 8th | 12th |
| Six seasons without Zimmer | 25th | 20th |
8. Advanced stat of the week
According to Pro Football Focus, this is a matchup between the two best pass-protecting lines in football. See, PFF has a fancy stat called PBE (pass-blocking efficiency). I'll allow those geniuses to explain what it is:
A weighted formula that combines sacks, hits and hurries (with hits and hurries three quarters the worth) relative to how many snaps an offensive line is in pass protection.
Using that formula, PFF grades Denver first and Cincy second, with only Cleveland, Baltimore and Green Bay within reaching distance.
| Highest OL pass-blocking efficiency ratings | ||
| Team | PBE | Sacks allowed |
| Broncos | 86.9 | 10 |
| Bengals | 85.6 | 11 |
| Ravens | 85.4 | 11 |
| Browns | 85.4 | 12 |
| Packers | 85 | 17 |
Nobody jumps out at you from Denver's line, but that's often the case with Manning at quarterback, especially with reliable targets like Demaryius Thomas, Sanders, Julius Thomas and Wes Welker. Still, left tackle Ryan Clady is a three-time Pro Bowl selection and Orlando Franklin, Louis Vasquez and Will Montgomery have been solid, especially considering they had to shift spots when right tackle Chris Clark went down midway through the year.
The Bengals are also without their Week 1 right tackle after losing Andre Smith last month, but left tackle Andrew Whitworth is having an All-Pro-caliber season on Dalton's blind side. In fact, of the 41 tackles who have played at least 450 pass-blocking snaps this season, Whitworth is the only one who hasn't been charged with a sack. The man has allowed only 16 pressures and just a single hit on Dalton in 14 starts.
Meanwhile, right guard Kevin Zeitler has performed extremely well. Those two have given up a total of one sack on a combined 1,542 snaps.
9. Under-the-radar stats of the week
Broncos: Denver has been called for 113 penalties this year, the second-highest total in the NFL. The only team with more is Seattle, who beat the Broncos in last season's Super Bowl.
Bengals: It does seem as though Dalton is either really good or really bad. The league-wide passer rating is 87.6. But only once this year has Dalton posted a rating between 85.0 and 90.0. Seven have been worse, six have been better. The only three quarterbacks in the NFL this season who have had five or more games with a rating of 95 or higher and five or more games with a rating of 80 or lower are Dalton, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson.
10. Injuries to watch
For the Broncos, Clady and Manning both have thigh issues and were limited in practice last week. Expect both to play, though, so the only real mystery is Marshall. The underrated linebacker suffered a foot sprain in Week 15 and is likely to miss Monday night's game, which could leave a thin linebacker corps vulnerable against Hill and Co.
For the Bengals, versatile guard Mike Pollak is dealing with a knee injury. That could force recently-signed veteran Eric Winston to start at right tackle, with Clint Boling likely sliding back inside for Pollak. Musical chairs aren't ideal in this situation.
11. Totally useless but sometimes fascinating historical notes
Some indisputable facts, most or all of which will have no impact on Monday's game:
- Peyton Manning has never lost to the Bengals, going 8-0 all-time.
- The Bengals have lost four straight prime-time games, while the Broncos have won four straight prime-time games, all of them this season.
- Denver hasn't lost to Cincinnati in a decade, winning four straight games. Two of those came on the road.
- The only time these teams have ever met in prime time, Cincy beat Denver 23-10 in 2004. The Bengals haven't beaten the Broncos since.
- The Broncos are 19-8 all-time against Cincinnati but only 7-6 on the road.
12. But which city is cooler?
In case your team loses, let's give you a chance to say you live in the cooler metropolis. Just drop this on your football frenemies:
| Which city is cooler? | |||
| Category | Denver | Cincinnati | Winner |
| Best claim to fame | Rocky Mountains | Ohio River | Denver |
| Celebrities | David Fincher, Tim Allen | Steven Spielberg, Dan Patrick, Jerry Springer | Tie |
| Hottest celebrity | Kristin Cavallari | Brooklyn Decker | Cincinnati |
| Last call | 2 a.m. | 2:15 a.m. | Cincinnati |
| Nickname | Mile-High City | The Queen City | Denver |
This is, admittedly, completely subjective. Feel free to move on to No. 13.
13. Prediction: Game of the year?
Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but the more you look at this matchup, the easier it is to fall in love. Talented quarterbacks with elite receivers, bright young running backs and top-notch offensive lines. Talented defenses with front-seven game-changers like Atkins and Miller. Two division leaders with something to play for in December, and with the arguably inferior Bengals at least getting home-field advantage. If Cincinnati can show up for this one, we could be in for football theater in prime time.
Finally.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL since 2007. You can also read his work at Bleacher Report, Awful Announcing and This Given Sunday. In order to sound more professional, he wrote this blurb in the third person. Follow him on Twitter. Or don’t. It’s entirely your choice.
