FRISCO, Texas -- The 2023 NFC East race has played out like the NFL's version of "The Tortoise and the Hare." The Philadelphia Eagles raced out to a 10-1 start to the season while the Dallas Cowboys lagged behind with an 8-3 at the conclusion of Week 12.
Over the last five weeks, the tables have turned. The Eagles have dropped four of their last five games including a 35-31 home defeat versus the Arizona Cardinals in Week 17 while the Cowboys have won three of their last five, including a nail-biting, controversial 20-19 victory over the NFC North champion Detroit Lions. These series of events puts the Cowboys in position to win the NFC East and clinch the NFC's No. 2 overall seed in Week 18 at the 4-12 Washington Commanders, a team Dallas defeated 45-10 on Thanksgiving.
"Yeah, puts us in a great position ... what an excellent opportunity," Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott said Thursday. "Just getting to have everything in our control, obviously. Talked about running our own race just doing that and staying committed to that and not looking around or waiting or fingers crossed on things to happen, and I think we did that right. We didn't finish those last four games over that stretch the way we wanted to. I guess we finished it, finished it the right way, but it didn't lay out the way that we wanted it to. Ultimately in the end, we've got one game right here to go win this division, have a two seed, and that makes it a playoff game. Another game that this team needs that would just help us. Obviously sets us up in the position for the playoffs, but also for us to have that playoff mindset as we've had for the last couple of weeks or so heading into the actual playoff."
How critical is it that Dallas can close out the season with a road victory at the Commanders on Sunday? Well, it may not be an exaggeration to say their hopes for Super Bowl contention hang in the balance. Should they win, they will be guaranteed home games through the first two rounds of the NFC playoffs.
That's a must win for them because at home the Cowboys lead the NFL in scoring offense (37.4 points per game), turnover margin (+10), third-down conversion rate (53.2%), point differential (+172) and time of possession (34:28).
On the flip side, their production on the road has been a stark contrast. Dallas' +166 overall point differential this season is the third highest for a team that has been outscored on the road (-6) in NFL history. The only teams that were more dominant than the 2023 Cowboys to also be outscored on the road both played about 100 years ago: the 1924 Frankford Yellow Jackets (+217 overall point differential, -13 on the road) and the 1921 Buffalo All-Americans (+182 overall point differential, -2 on the road). A loss would likely drop them to the fifth seed, the top wild-card slot, forcing them to start the postseason on the road where they would probably stay the rest of the way.
| Cowboys (2023 season) | HOME | ROAD |
|---|---|---|
W-L | 8-0* | 3-5 |
PPG | 37.4* | 21.5 |
PPG allowed | 15.9* | 22.3 |
Point differential | +172* | -6 |
Total YPG | 425.8* | 308.9 |
Total YPG allowed | 305.8 | 308.6* |
Turnover margin | +10* | -2 |
Third-down percentage | 53.2%* | 42.2% |
Time of possession | 34:28* | 28:51 |
*Top five in NFL
Fortunately for the Cowboys, their opponent is a team in dire need of a reset. Washington has lost seven consecutive games, the longest active losing streak in the league. Their defense is allowing the most points per game (30.0) and total yards per game (385.8) in the entire league. That's a great matchup for Prescott, who leads the NFL with 32 touchdown passes, and Pro Bowl wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, whose 122 catches also lead the league.
| Commanders defense (2023 season) | NFL Rank | |
|---|---|---|
PPG Allowed | 30.0 | Last* |
Total YPG Allowed | 385.8 | Last |
Yards/Play Allowed | 5.9 | 31st |
TD-INT Allowed | 35=7 | Last |
Passer Rating Allowed | 204.1 | Last |
* T-worst ranked scoring defense by Washington in Super Bowl era (Finished last in 1994)
"Yeah absolutely," Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy said Wednesday when asked about if a road win would matter even against a sinking Washington team. "I think it's one of the things that, you go through the statistics, and I think just one of the things, just touched on today at the team meeting. ... That's the opportunity to win the division but winning on the road is something that, it's just great for your football team. Road wins gives you a different kind of confidence that you bring home and so yeah this is a great experience for us."
However, All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons -- the NFL's leader in quarterback pressures (102), quarterback pressure rate (22.4%) and pass rush win rate (37.6%), which is when a defender beats his block in less than 2.5 seconds -- is sick and tired of hearing about the idea that Dallas needs to build confidence away from AT&T Stadium.
"Hopefully, we just go out there and win," Parsons said Wednesday. I feel like confidence at this point, it shouldn't be about confidence. Everyone should just go out and do their job. This is your job. We are a team. We need to go out there and play together, be as one. Go out there and get a win that we should win. I think that's what it's about. It shouldn't be about confidence. We're a week away from playoffs. I'm tired of learning and growing. It should be about dominating and playing great football."
The Dallas defense that tormented Washington in Week 12 has another opportunity for box score-stuffing performance in Week 18. Commanders quarterback Sam Howell leads the NFL in interceptions since Week 11 across six losses.
"Just go out there and play football. He throws those picks because he can really sling it," Cowboys safety Jayron Kearse said Wednesday when asked about facing Howell while he is in the midst of a slump. "He thinks he can make every throw. He's a pretty good, young quarterback, and he definitely has a cannon. You can't look at it like he throws a bunch of picks because he throws those picks because he's actually slinging it. We just have to out there and capitalize when we have the opportunity to actually get those picks."
| Howell (2023 season) | First 10 Games | Last 6 Games |
|---|---|---|
W-L | 4-6 | 0-6 |
Comp Pct | 66.5% | 55.9% |
Pass YPG | 278.3 | 55.9% |
TD-INT | 17-9 | 3-10* |
Passer Rating | 91.5 | 54.2 |
* Most INT in NFL in span
With victory at Washington on Sunday, the Cowboys can ensure an NFC East division title and the NFC's No. 2 playoff seed, guaranteeing home games through at least the first two rounds of the postseason.
"It's always dangerous to go against someone who has nothing to lose," Parsons said Wednesday. "They can pull out all types of tricks and gambits because they want to make the statement that 'they just want to beat the Cowboys.' Their backs are against the wall, and they want to see what they have for next year and prepare for that. We have to go make a statement that we are the better team, the more dominant and aggressive team. We just have to prove that Sunday."
