The 2021 NFL Playoff bracket will be whittled down to four teams after NFL Divisional Round action on Sunday. The Kansas City Chiefs will take on the Cleveland Browns at 3:05 p.m. ET for the final spot in the AFC Championship Game, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will visit the New Orleans Saints at 6:40 p.m. ET for the last spot in the NFC Championship Game. Kansas City is favored by 10-points while New Orleans is a three-point favorite, but if neither of those spreads catch your eye there are also dozens of NFL player props to bet.
Alvin Kamara rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown as the Saints beat the Bears last weekend and the latest Divisional Round NFL prop odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Kamara's over-under for total rushing yards at 61.5. The Buccaneers have the No. 1 rushing defense in the NFL and limited Kamara to just 56 rushing yards in their two regular-season matchups, so the under will likely be a popular play among Divisional Round NFL prop bets. Before locking in any NFL prop bets for Sunday's games, you need to see the NFL Divisional Round prop predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters Wild Card Weekend on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
With the NFL Divisional Round concluding with two games on Sunday, the model has evaluated the NFL player props from William Hill and found five strong bets. You can only see them here.
Top NFL player prop bets for Sunday's NFL Divisional Round games
The model is projecting Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady to go well under 310.5 passing yards (-115), predicting that he falls more than 30 yards short on average. The six-time Super Bowl champion threw for 381 yards last week in his first postseason start in Tampa Bay as the Bucs defeated Washington 31-23.
It was Brady's fourth consecutive 300-yard passing game but Sunday's matchup against the Saints is far less favorable for Brady and the Buccaneers. Brady threw for 239 yards and threw two interceptions in a Week 1 loss to New Orleans and then followed that up by throwing for 209 yards and three interceptions in a 38-3 loss to the Saints in Week 9. Brady was only sacked 21 times all season, but was sacked three times in each of those two games and the New Orleans defense makes under 310.5 look extremely alluring here.
The model is also projecting Saints quarterback Drew Brees to go well under 279.5 passing yards (-115), predicting that he falls nearly 50 yards short on average. Brees turned 42 on Friday and even though he continues to manage the New Orleans offense brilliantly, there's no question that he's lost some steam off his fastball and he's only thrown for more than 280 yards once in his last six starts.
Brees threw six touchdowns without throwing an interception in New Orleans' two wins over Tampa Bay earlier this year, but Brees threw for just 160 yards in the Week 1 victory and then only managed 222 in the Week 9 blowout on the road. With Taysom Hill regularly taking snaps away from Brees as Sean Payton looks to keep opposing defenses off balance and Tampa Bay allowing only Matt Ryan to throw for 280 yards or more in the last five games, under 279.5 is the clear play here.
How to make NFL player prop bets for Sunday's Divisional Round games
In addition, the model is high on a prop bet that returns 6-1. You need to see the model's analysis before making any NFL Divisional Round prop bets for Sunday.
Which Divisional Round prop bet offers a plus-money payout? And what other prop bets does the model love for Sunday's NFL Divisional Round games? Visit SportsLine now to see the top Divisional Round prop bets for Sunday, all from the model that's up almost $7,900 on top-rated NFL picks.