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There have been many close games through the first three weeks of the 2022 NFL schedule, and Week 4 is shaping up to be a doozy as well. Caesars Sportsbook has nine games within three points in the latest Week 4 NFL odds. These tight NFL spreads can create a tricky dynamic for NFL office pool picks and NFL confidence pool picks. There is only one favorite larger than a touchdown this week, which is Green Bay at -9.5 against New England. Should you put the Packers at the top of your NFL pool picks? Before you make your Week 4 NFL pick'em predictions, you need to see the Week 4 NFL football pool picks from SportsLine's proven model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 139-103 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

More importantly for NFL confidence pool players, the model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated the entire Week 4 NFL schedule 10,000 times and generated its optimal NFL pick'em plays. Go to SportsLine to see them now.

Top Week 4 NFL office pool predictions

One of the top Week 4 NFL predictions from the model: The Cowboys get a comfortable win at home as 3-point favorites against the Commanders. Dallas was written off by many experts after star quarterback Dak Prescott suffered a thumb injury in a blowout loss to Tampa Bay to open the season, but the Cowboys have responded with two resilient performances. They picked up a 20-17 win over Cincinnati as 7-point underdogs in Week 2 before beating the Giants by a touchdown as underdogs last Monday night.

Prescott will be out again this week, but backup Cooper Rush has now gone 3-0 as a starting quarterback in the NFL and has completed 62.7% of his passes for 514 yards and two touchdowns this season. Running back Ezekiel Elliott is coming off his best game of the year, rushing for 73 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries, and will face a Washington defense that has allowed at least 24 points in all three of its games.

SportsLine's model projects Rush to throw for 240 yards and two touchdowns, while Elliott and Tony Pollard are combining for more than 100 rushing yards. Washington does not have enough firepower to keep up, which is why the Cowboys are winning in almost 70% of simulations. See the rest of the model's Week 4 NFL pool picks here.

How to make Week 4 NFL office pool picks

The model also made the call on every other Week 4 NFL game and has strong picks for potentially close matchups like Cowboys vs. Commanders and Bears vs. Giants. It's also calling for several big favorites to struggle more than expected and several shocking teams to hang tough. You can only see all of the model's NFL pool picks here.

So who should you pick in every Week 4 NFL game? And which underdogs should you back? Visit SportsLine now to get optimal NFL office pool picks, all from the advanced computer model that has ranked in the top 10 on straight-up picks four of the last six years and went an outstanding 139-103 on top-ranked picks against the spread since 2017.