The NFC East is a mess through 10 weeks in the season, with a division leader two games under .500 and a champion almost certain to have the worst record for a division winner in league history. The NFC East has 10 wins combined on the season, with the Pittsburgh Steelers having nearly has many wins through 10 weeks (9).
Injuries have certainly played a role in the division front-runners struggling, but the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles just haven't been good at any point throughout the season. Dallas had allowed the most points through six games in the Super Bowl era, while Philadelphia has experienced Carson Wentz regressing into one of the worst quarterbacks in football this season. The Washington Football Team and New York Giants have first year head coaches and are rebuilding, even though they are right in the thick of the division race (their only wins have come within the division).
Thanks to the Eagles' loss to the Giants, the NFC East race is wide open. Philadelphia didn't take control of a putrid division in Week 10, leaving every team -- yes, even Dallas -- with an opportunity to capture the division.
Who's going to win the NFC East? Let's take a look at each team's remaining schedule and predict from there.
Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1)
Strength of victory (win% of teams defeated): .306
Remaining strength of schedule: .571
Remaining schedule: at Browns (6-3), vs. Seahawks (6-3), at Packers (7-2), vs. Saints (7-2), at Cardinals (6-3), at Cowboys (2-7), vs. Washington (2-7)
The defending division champions clearly have the toughest path toward winning this year's crown, playing five consecutive games against teams that currently have winning records -- which include the current top-two seeds in the NFC. Based on how the Eagles have played, is it possible for this team to win any of those five games? Philadelphia already has issues with Carson Wentz in his inconsistent play along with how poor of a play-caller Doug Pederson has been this season.
The Eagles have plenty of flaws on their roster, and they won't be going away if they win a division title. Philadelphia typically saves its best football for December under Pederson and will probably find a way into beating one of these five teams. If they don't, the Eagles will be staring at a 3-10-1 record heading into the final two games, both within the division.
Beating Dallas on the road -- which Philadelphia hasn't done since 2017 -- and Washington was the path for the Eagles to win the division if they defeated the Giants this past Sunday. That still is the path toward repeating, even if Philadelphia loses its next five games. If the Eagles do pull off an upset (they do have a conference record of 3-3), they'll still have to beat Dallas and Washington.
New York Giants (3-7)
Strength of victory (win% of teams defeated): .278
Remaining strength of schedule: .518
Remaining schedule: bye, at Bengals (2-6-1), at Seahawks (6-3), vs. Cardinals (6-3), at Browns (6-3), at Ravens (6-3), vs. Cowboys (2-7)
The Giants have played themselves into the division title race, thanks to their upset victory over the division-leading Eagles. Here's the problem with the Giants: their only wins are in the NFC East (two wins over Washington and Sunday's win over Philadelphia). Daniel Jones only has four wins as a starting quarterback, and Sunday's win over the Eagles was his first victory against a team not named Washington since his first career start against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3 of last season.
While it's hard to fully believe the Giants can beat any team outside of the division, they can change that narrative coming out of the bye with a win over the Bengals, a team the Eagles tied. New York would have the division lead with a win over Cincinnati if Philadelphia loses two straight, giving the Giants a whomping four wins.
New York will have difficulty winning the four games after that, but the defense has significantly improved and Jones hasn't turned the football over in two straight games. That Week 17 game against Dallas at home may determine the NFC East for New York, which is the only team in the division that has a winning record in divisional games at 3-2.
Since the Eagles have a tie, the Giants may have to win six games in order to capture the division, if the Eagles beat Dallas and Washington the final two weeks. New York's best bet is to beat Cincinnati in Week 12 and Dallas in Week 17 and hope Philadelphia loses its next five and splits between Dallas and Washington.
Washington Football Team (2-7)
Strength of victory (win% of teams defeated): .306
Remaining strength of schedule: .453
Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals (2-6-1), at Cowboys (2-7), at Steelers (9-0), at 49ers (4-6), vs. Seahawks (6-3), vs. Panthers (3-7), at Eagles (3-5-1)
Washington is still alive in the NFC East race, even though the Football Team was swept by New York. Both of Washington's wins are also within the division against Philadelphia and Dallas. The Football Team's offense appears to be revitalized with Alex Smith at quarterback, averaging 433 yards in their last two games (one where he played extensively following an injury to Kyle Allen) and losing both by a combined total of six points. The Giants loss is going to haunt Washington all season, especially with a few winnable games on its schedule over the next several weeks.
Outside of Pittsburgh and Seattle, its difficult to actually put an "L" next to Washington against any of their upcoming opponents. The Bengals are a better football team than their record indicates, but it's a winnable game for Washington based on how the Football Team played the last two games. San Francisco and Carolina both play hard, but the 49ers are falling out of the NFC playoff race and are beat up across the roster. Carolina plays hard under Matt Rhule, but the Panthers have also lost five straight after a 3-2 start as another team that is rebuilding.
The two remaining NFC East games and Cincinnati are the contests Washington has to win in order to have a chance at the division title. That puts Washington at five wins and prevents the Eagles from getting to that mark if they lose the next five games in their schedule gauntlet. Again, Philadelphia's tie comes into play.
Washington has to hope Philadelphia loses its next five and New York can't beat any of the winning teams remaining on its schedule. The Giants also can't beat Cincinnati and Dallas, because that would get them to five wins -- eliminating Washington unless the Football Team beats Dallas, Cincinnati, Carolina, and Philadelphia. That would put the Football Team at six wins and in position for the division title.
Washington can take care of business by winning its two division games and beating Cincinnati and Carolina but could still need help after being swept by New York.
Dallas Cowboys (2-7)
Strength of victory (win% of teams defeated): .316
Remaining strength of schedule: .375
Remaining schedule: at Vikings (4-5), vs. Washington (2-7), at Ravens (6-3), at Bengals (2-6-1), vs. 49ers (4-5), vs. Eagles (3-5-1), at Giants (3-7)
Believe it or not, Dallas still has a chance to win the NFC East thanks to its schedule being much easier after the bye. Ignore for a moment that the Cowboys haven't scored over 19 points in the four games Dak Prescott has missed and that they have allowed the most points per game in the NFL this season, and Philadelphia's loss has kept Dallas alive in the division race.
Dallas still has to get its quarterback situation figured out, but the defense has allowed just 24 points a game over the last three weeks. The problem is the offense has averaged just 10.3 points per game during that stretch. Its hard to think Dallas can beat nearly anyone at this point; it took a big fourth-quarter comeback just to beat the Atlanta Falcons, and their other win is against the Giants.
The Thanksgiving showdown against the Washington Football Team will certainly eliminate one team from the division title race, so that may be the Cowboys season if they lose. Dallas still has winnable games against Cincinnati and San Francisco before facing Philadelphia and New York to close out the year. If the Cowboys can win the rematch against Washington, that sets Dallas up where it only has to split between Cincinnati and San Francisco to have a shot at the NFC East.
Dallas currently has the tiebreaker over New York but has to beat Philadelphia in Week 16 to have a shot at the division. A win there sets the Cowboys up with a Week 17 showdown with the Giants for the sixth win and potentially the division.
The games Dallas has to win: Washington, Philadelphia, New York. The Cowboys will also need a split between Cincinnati and San Francisco in Weeks 14 and 15 in order to get to six wins and eliminate the Eagles' tie from the picture.
The Eagles' tie against the Bengals may actually give Philadelphia the division. Six wins will likely take the NFC East thanks to that tie and the division's ineptitude to beat anyone outside of the division. Remember, Philadelphia and Dallas are the only teams to beat an opponent not in the division.
