Two 1-1 AFC teams face off in Sin City this weekend as Jimmy Garoppolo and the Las Vegas Raiders host Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh Steelers. These two offenses rank in the bottom three through two weeks, and the defenses statistically aren't great either. However, this is an opportunity for one club to get back on track.
The Steelers have scored four total touchdowns this season, with two of them being scored by the defense. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith had huge games against the Cleveland Browns last week, but now they face the only team in the NFL that has yet to allow a sack this season. Who will emerge victorious in this grudge match?
Below we will break down this Sunday night matchup from a gambling perspective, and examine the line movement, Over/Under and player props to consider. The Steelers are 5-0 against the spread in their last five prime-time games, while the Over has hit in eight straight home prime-time games for the Raiders. First, let's look at how you can watch this game.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Sept. 24 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium (Paradise, Nevada)
TV: NBC | Stream: fubo
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Raiders -2.5, O/U 43
Line movement
This line reopened at Steelers -1.5 last Saturday. It was down to Steelers -1 on Monday and then flipped to Raiders -2.5 in a massive move on Tuesday.
The pick: Steelers +2.5. The Raiders have home-field advantage, but which one of these teams have looked more impressive through two weeks? I would argue it's the Steelers. Their defense really stepped up against the Browns, and I'm holding out hope that Matt Canada can fix the offense. That probably includes going to George Pickens early and often, and incorporating Jaylen Warren more. The Raiders pass defense is arguably the worst in the league. They have allowed an 81.7% completion rate to quarterbacks, five passing touchdowns and a 116.6 passer rating.
I think the Steelers defense could shock Jimmy G a bit. The Raiders haven't faced a pass rush like this one. Pittsburgh is averaging nine QB hits per game, while Vegas has allowed a total of five so far. The Steelers defense is top four this season in sacks, takeaways, QB hits and defensive touchdowns. Additionally, you have to remember that road teams have been successful this year. Visitors are 19-13 straight up this season, and 19-10-3 against the spread.
Over/Under 43
The total reopened at 43.5 on Saturday, but was bumped up to 44 on Monday. On Tuesday, it dropped to 43.
The pick: Under 43. The Steelers allow an average of 26 points per game and the Raiders allow 27 points per game. However, Unders are 15-5 (75%) on "Sunday Night Football" since the start of the 2022 season. Both of these offenses have struggled out of the gate. In fact, the Steelers didn't even get inside the Browns' 30-yard line last week. Lean to the Under.
Kenny Pickett props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +123, Under -169)
Passing yards: 222.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing attempts: 31.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing completions: 20.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
Longest passing completion: 34.5 (Over -113, Under -121)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -101, Under -135)
Pickett has never thrown multiple touchdowns in a game. However, the juice tempts me to lean Over. I don't have a great read on Pickett's passing yards number, but I'll take the Over on his passing completions, and take a flier on the Over for his longest passing completion going at least 35 yards. Pickens had a 71-yard touchdown against Cleveland last week. Pickett has thrown three interceptions in two games this year, but I won't touch that prop.
Jimmy Garoppolo props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -101, Under -135)
Passing yards: 241.5 (Over +108, Under -148)
Passing attempts: 31.5 (Over -104, Under -131)
Passing completions: 20.5 (Over -129, Under -106)
Longest passing completion: 35.5 (Over -111, Under -123)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -123, Under -111)
I'll take the Under on Garoppolo's passing yards number. He hasn't crossed 200 passing yards yet this season. I lean Under on his passing attempts, and will take the Under on Jimmy G's longest passing completion. Like Pickett, Garoppolo has thrown three interceptions in two games this season. While I won't take Pickett to throw a pick, I will take Jimmy G to throw one.
Player props to consider
Jaylen Warren receiving yards: Over 15.5 (-125). Warren caught four passes for 66 yards last week, and I think Canada is going to give him more touches this week. Warren did manage just 12 receiving yards on five catches vs. the San Francisco 49ers, but I like this line.
George Pickens receiving yards: Over 52.5 (-139). Yes, I'm going to throw in another receiving yards prop here even though I don't love the Over on Pickett's passing yards number. Pickens went off for 127 yards last week, and I think getting him the ball will be a focus for Pittsburgh.
Josh Jacobs receiving yards: Over 15.5 (-113). An interesting line given that Jacobs has crossed this number in both games this season. Last week vs. the Bills, he caught five of six targets for 51 yards.
Chris Boswell made extra points: Over 1.5 (-184). Juicy, but not juicy enough for me to ignore it. Maybe a same-game parlay leg.
I like my picks for this game, but you might like R.J. White's better. He's our NFL expert over at SportsLine.com and he's been on a roll with his Steelers predictions, going 55-28-4 on his last 87 picks. If you want to check out White's take on this prime-time game, you can do that here.
